The Feasibility Research On Ships' Routeing In Nearby Waters Of Caofeidian Island

More and more marine casualties and incidents occurred in nearby waters of Caofeidian in recent years .All officers of traffic management section of Tianjin MSA think interference measure should be adopt to reduce the number of casualties .Though the effect of Ships' Routing to reducing collisions and groundings has been approbated by international and national voyage field and port authorities, it must be offered satisfying theoretical foundation. The objective is to demonstrate the possibility of the Ships' Routing in Caofeidian waters.The study clarifies the status on safety and the important meaning of strengthening safety management on the basis of analyses to the tianjin port and around waters, the natural condition of Caofeidian waters, traffic safety position , reasons and characteristic analyses of casualties . There into, a mass of source material and data provide the foundation for Ships'Routing study in Caofeidian waters.The design of Traffic separation scheme in Caofeidian waters is the result and aim of the study. The design is a application of General Provisions of Ships' Routing of IMO. Referring to the experience of Chengshantou scheme, the study clarifies the necessary condition and possibility of Caofeidian scheme.The forecasting to effect of Caofeidian scheme is a primary study method. Through comparing the result between intervention and nonintervention explains the validity of the intervention. Inducting the concept of Intervention in Time Series and relational models for forecasting is the new innovation of the study. It provide a new method in maritime safety management.