The Research On Prediction Of Throughput On The Basis Of Dividing The Hinterland Of Port's Containerized Transport

Containerized transport is an advanced modernization transport way,and it is the result and an important sign of modernized communications. To this day, containerized transport has already entered the new period, which takes many types of international transport as characterization. The situation of characteristic becomes more and more important in freight transportation. Yet container port's rise and decline and development are closely linked with the hinterland again. On one hand, the development and construction of the port must rely on exploiting of the hinterland range and economic development of hinterland. Hinterland is the basis of port's subsistence and development. On the other hand, port is hinterland's door. The construction and development of the port will make important facilitation to the hinterland's economic development. However, because administrative division was cut, almost all ports lacked unified planning, and port's function and division the work were not very clear, the compute of hinterland was also not scientific, and the factor that used to compute hinterland was incomplete, hinterland's calculate was repeated. All of these caused the blindness of construction, and led to waste resources. This paper is based on systematic thought and assisted optimize method most with the network of operations research. Then,we sum up landlocked transportation problem to minimizing of the whole society comprehensive freight. At the same time, transport distance is replaced of the distance of expenses. Highway, train and inland-river's single shortest way is replaced of its expenses of distance. In this way, the difficult problem of the distance, transporting, freight best match be settled. On this basis, hinterland, local coastal port and Overseas port is included in a transport network. Then we completely bring hinterland, local coastal port and an overseas port into the transportation network, and compute the shortest circuit between nodes with minimal cost. By the way of the container " O-D" joining in marriage flows, we divide the port containerized traffic hinterland reasonably. In the guidance of prediction of the yearly road planning, this paper gives a method to divide port containerized traffic hinterland. Then, on the basis of hinterland division, we trace to the full course of port respectively formation and the transportation of hinterland container, and give out the container dynamic forecasting model of throughput at port, which has been surmounted the shortcoming of the one-sidedness and static state of traditional forecasting methods.Finally, we give the containerized transport of Shandong Province as an example in this text, and divide the hinterland of all local ports in this province. On the basis of the hinterland division, we count ontainer throughputs of various coast ports in 2000 in Shandong Province, and predict ontainer throughputs of various coast ports in 2005 and in 2010.