A Study On The Load Forecasting System And Its Application In Urban Distribution Planning

With the constant and rapid development of China's economy and fasturbanization, more importance is attached to overall urban planning. And replanningand expansion planning are carried out everywhere. Therefore, how to process theassorted power planning also receives great recognition from urban planning as wellas power industry departments. Moreover, load forecasting is the very basis of powerplanning.Load forecasting for urban distribution planning includes the peak loadforecasting, power consumption forecasting, and load distribution forecasting which ismore important. There are also many methods used in load forecasting for urbandistribution planning and a lot of significant research findings. However, urbandistribution planning requires a comprehensive application of present load forecastingmethods. As a result, there is no satisfactory way to accomplish this task. In this paper,current methods of load forecasting are analyzed and at the same time, severalimportant load forecasting ideas are proposed according to different circumstances inload forecasting in urban distribution planning. These methods synthetically employabout ten ways such as plot load density indexes, regression analysis model, trendextrapolation model, grey system model and correlation analysis. Base on thosecomprehensive forecasting methods, a corresponding load forecasting subsystem isdeveloped. Being tested in several real urban distribution planning projects, theproposed new ideas can achieve excellent forecasting results.