The Load Forecasting Of Distribution Network Based On Gray Theory

With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the development planning of urban grid which is the central load on power system must meet the urban development's requirements on electric load. Combined with the "12th five-year" development planning of Jining city power grid, the scientifically reliable load forecasting is provided as the Jining district city "12th-five year" network's planning.The usual methods of medium-term and long-term load prediction are introduced within the classical and newly predicted methods. And the grey prediction technology is taken for the load forecasting of Jining city. The basic conceptions, the generation, and the basic models of the grey prediction technology are discussed. The accuracy test and error analysis methods of GM(1,1) model are studied. The shortage of GM(1,1) model are discussed, then the improvements are presented.Taken The loading data from 2001 to 2005 of Jining district as basic data, the three-point smooth method is used. The max total load, theUpon completion of the total load forecasting, it finish the forecast analysis of the loading of JiNing area space-time distribution. According to JiNing district land use planning and 110 kv and existing 220kV transformer substations layout, it made the forecasting analysis of load of the transformer substations. The forecasting result of the total load is similar after substation collect.Finally it does the typical load forecasting analysis for some lOkV power supply line load for network planning information.