The Study On Area Transportation Demand Forecast Based On Integrated Transportation

The area economy development and the area transportation development havegreat effect on each other , area transportation should be integratively developedand programmed with its economy. Base on the principles of integrative andharmony development, the whole area transportation planning should emphasizethe harmony of parts and whole ,short-term and long-term benefit and dispose therelationship of transportation, social economic and entironment. By doing this, theresources can be developed and collocated in reason, area competition power canbe increased, the area economy and the area transportation can achieve continuabledevelopment.Studying area transportation development direction and planning conceivefrom systemic and integrative point of view to put forward corresponding measuresshould analyze the connection of area economy development and areatransportation in different periods and estimate future development current ofeconomy and transportation demand.This dissertation is based on Research on Northeast Economy AreaTransportation Planning.According to China macro-economy stratagem, generalprogramming of transportation development and Northeast development stratagem,it follows the principle of market economy and continuable development, takeseconomy theories and science methods as its tool. Base on the research ofNortheast area economy development and area transportation, this dissertationanalyze the connection of them , impersonality estimate the trend of countryeconomy and the society, as well as new demand on Northeast transportation. Inorder to offer theoretic gist and correlative data for the planning of developmentdirection and programming of northeast economy area transportation, thisdissertation includes the forecast of future transportation demand and economydevelopment trend of northeast economy area, which from systemic and integrativepoint and as detailed as possible, in addition ,it also satisfy the demand on societyeconomy, pay attention to optimization and harmony development.The dissertation has six chapters. The main content as following:Chapter one, introduce research purpose and the background about this article,and then simply introduces the current research status,finally state basic methodand scope of the forcast.Chapter two, briefly state the theoretics of integrated transportaion andtransportation demand, and briefly narrate the forecast of transportaion volume, inorder to offer theoretics support and guidance for detailed forecast.Chapter three, analyse current status of northeast economy area transportationdemand. Firstly set up transportation adaptability index to analyse thetransportation adaptability and transportation structure of northeast economy area,then anylyse thequalification and changement of transportation balance betweendemand and supply, and set up suitable forecast system based on the analysis.Chapter four, analyse the economy development trend of northeast economyarea. Firstly analyse the relationship between economy index and transportationindex utilizing the combining methods of the qualitative analysis and thequantitative calculation, in order to explain the necessity of forecast of societyeconomy. Then set up mathematics model such as gray system and BPNN toforecast mainly economy index.Chapter five, forecast northeast economy area transportation demand. Firstlyset up assembled forecast model to forecast volume of passenger transportation andfreight transportation in northeast economy area. Secondly analyse the flow volumeand direction of staple cargo transportation system, which include container, coal,base oil, ore and foodstuff transportation systems. Thirdly analyse the selection oftransportation mode and forecast the volume of different kinds of transportationmodes. Finally analyse and forecast the mainly transportation routeway inintegrated transportation network of northeast economy area.Chapter six, the conclusion and expectation. Summarize mainly research workof this dissertation and presents questions that need to be further researched in thefuture as well.During the study, on the basis of the systematic analysis, econometrics,combination of the transportation demand and supply, this dissertation utilizes thecombining methods of the qualitative analysis and the quantitative calculation, paysclose attention to the specific analysis and the general evaluation. In general, thereis something new in this dissertation as the following:1. Introduce transportation demand forecast method systematically, putforward basic method of area transportation demand forecast based on integratedtransportaion.2. Analyse the relationship between society economy and transportationdemand of northeast economic area to explain the necessity of society economyforecast, which utilize econometrics knowledge and tools.3. Transportation demand forecast which utilize assembled forecast model.4. Qualitative analyse and quantitative forecast to the flow volume anddirection of staple cargo transportation system and container transportation systemin northeast economic area.5. Summarize the basic information of transportation routeways in northeasteconomy area and forcast their transportation demand.