Analysis On Comprehensive Regional Transportation Demand And Research On Its Volume Forecast

Transportation is the important guarantee for normal running of the national economy, astransport activities which solution to the physical data, information and related person that inthe difference space and time requirements, both in the supply of size, structure and thetechnical means have reached unprecedented levels. Continuous evolution and developmentof comprehensive transportation systems have new demands for transportation planning andtransportation demand forecast, transportation demand forecast theory and the development oftechnology are far behind the times of development needs. Therefore, there is a need forresearching regional comprehensive transportation theories and methods of demand analysisand forecast system.This article takes regional comprehensive transportation demand as the objective ofstudy, base on the more comprehensive present research and development of situation,analysis of the main research content and ideas. First, explain the definition, characteristicsand development stage of comprehensive regional transportation and the definition, content,type, mechanism of its demand and the relationship between supply and demand. Second,analyze the characteristics of comprehensive regional transportation demand, the affectingfactors of the demand for passengers and freights transportation, selecting the gray correlationmethod filtering on main influence factors. Again, research transportation demand forecastmethods and models, using combination forecast method for forecasting the volume oftransportation demand. Study the basic framework of the demand forecast, based on thecontents and process of regional comprehensive transportation demand forecast, discuss theeffectiveness of transportation demand forecast from the three angles including the choice ofneeds effect factors, needs forecast level and method model. Finally, take Shaanxi Provincefor example, analysis its integrated traffic transportation status, find its exists of problems;filtering out of the main indicators of impact factors and forecast; from three aspects includingthe total volume demand, structures to forecast. This research can provide approaches andmethods for comprehensive transportation demand analysis and forecast, and providesreference for regional transportation planning.