The Study On Transportation Demand Forecast Of Northeast Economic Area

Transport is the occupation of more resources and energy consumption industries, to facilitate human beings, to overcome obstacles from the space at the same time, will use up a lot of land, worsening the quality of the environment brought about negative issues. China's large population, per capita share of resources significantly lower than the level of developed countries, the development of transportation resources by the binding nature of strong, therefore, how the face of China's traffic to develop faster and more efficient use of limited resources. We can not because of stress caused by the development of serious damage to the environment, we can not because of resource and environmental protection, one-sided understanding of the meaning of sustainable development and the development of transport constraints. At the same time, regional transport system is the system of regional economic systems, the regional economic development has a strong role in promoting. Therefore, both the transport system itself, or to promote regional economic development from the point of view of all we must attach importance to the regional transport system development. And by the State Council on August 20, 2007 "published by the Northeast rejuvenation plan" Looking ahead, along with the overall rejuvenation of the northeastern region, the Northeast is expected following the Pearl River Delta economic zone, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, become China's fourth largest economic zone . In this context, on the northeast economic zone transport needs of scientific forecast, on the northeast economic zone socio-economic development and revitalization of old industrial bases in northeast China the implementation of the strategy is very important realistic significance and far-reaching historical significance.In the investigation of China's northeast economic zone and socio-economic and development of transport and related references to read at home and abroad on the basis of this paper to national macroeconomic development strategy, transport development master plan ideas and the revitalization of northeast China's development strategy as the basis, to follow Development of the market economy and the objective laws of the basic principles of sustainable development, to economic theory and the scientific method as a tool, a comprehensive analysis of economic and social systems and transport in different historical periods and the relationship between the characteristics and objective judgement of the national economy and estimates and Social development trends and on the northeast economic zone transport the new requirements to meet the needs of economic and social development for the purpose, focus on convergence, optimization and coordinated development.The paper is divided into five chapters, each chapter of the main elements are as follows:Chapter 1, it is introduced the research background papers, the status quo at home and abroad, mainly content and ideas and technical routes.Chapter 2, it is analysized the development of transport integration of the Northeast Economic Area, including the status of an integrated transport, transport market situation analysis, structural changes in passenger and freight transport ,economic and objective conditions, and to identify the northeast economic zone transport system Integration in the development of the deficiencies.Chapter 3, it is analysized the northeast area of socio-economic development trend of economic. First on the northeast economic zone and socio-economic development of transport between the mutual impact, after some of the main socio-economic indicators related to specific forecast.Chapter 4, it forecasts on the northeast economic zone transport demand. First it forecasts on the whole of northeast economic zone of the total passenger and freight transport demand forecasts and in accordance with all provinces and all regions of the situation or make a specific for the appropriate proportion of the scientific distribution of the Northeast Economic Area, the main cargo transport system to the respective categories of its Traffic flows. This was followed by various modes of transport volume predicted for the Northeast Economic Area passenger and cargo transport mode of choice and variety of modes of transport capacity to analyze the projections. Finally, it forecasts the Northeast Economic Area, "one center, one axis, four vertical and four horizontal" integrated transport network of major transport routes and the transport.Chapter 5, it is assessment and future prospects. The first chapter of the full text of the summary of the main research results, prospects and the deficiencies of this thesis, proposed to be further addressed.In this paper, the focus is the reality of a volume of supply and demand balance conditions, on the basis of this analysis of conditions for the future balance trends, changes in direction and extent of change, then the new estimates of supply and demand in balance and, therefore, will be able to estimate future demand for transportation The formation of scale.