The Mothed Of The Transportation Demand Forecast During The Large-Scale Activities

Abstract With the frequent exchange between China and the international society, thelarge-scale international activities are chosen to be held in China more and more.Only in next several years, the World Exposition of Shanghai will be held at 2005and the 29th Olympic Game will be held in Beijing at 2008. During the large-scaleactivity, the urban transportation trips usually are made up of two parts: theparticipators' trips and the resident daily trips. The transportation demand of twoparts are different, accordingly the services which are offered are also dissimilar.During the activity, in order to guarantee the activity to be holding successfully, thetrips of activity participators should be guaranteed firstly, and the daily trips alsoshould not be affected by the activity to the best of out abilities. In the traditional methods of transportation demand forecast, it is usuallysupposed that the macro-demands of different travelers and the services areconsistent, so it always makes all trips of people as a whole in the process offorecast. It is clearly that the traditional methods do not suit to forecast transportiondemand and evaluate road network performance concern with activities'transportatio-n. Therefore, basing on the Four-stage method of trips forecast, this paper putsforward the hiberarchy method of trips forecast that can be used to analyze thetransportation problems of the large-scale activity, and take it into practice by theexample. Based on the different characteristic, request and service of different users, andinfluenced by the traffic policies and transportation management during thelarge-scale activity, the transportation network is divided into correspondingdifferent hierarchy by the hiberarchy method, and on the different hierarchy theanalyses are done. Using 2008 Beijing Olympic Game as an example, basing on theroad network of Beijing, and analyzing the characteristic of trips during the game,the road network is partitioned into three hiberarchies, which are the Olympic Green,the Olympic Circle, and the other parts of network used by citizens, the worstforecast day & time are confirmed, and the models are erect to forecast the game'stransportation demand and evaluate road network performance.