Optimization Research On The Traffic Prediction Of Dezhou-Yu’e Province Boundaries Highway

With the rapid social and economic development of our country, the highwayconstruction makes great progress. As the preliminary work of highway construction,the highway planning plays a significant roll. Among them, traffic volume predictionis the vital part of the highway planning, which directly affects the science degree ofthe highway planning. So it is necessary to study on the traffic volume prediction inreality.First of all, the development process of traffic volume studies at home andabroad has been introduced in this paper. And then, the existing problems areanalyzed so as to clear about the research direction. Secondly, based on the study ofhighway traffic volume regulation and influencing factors, the paper has improved thetraditional four step methods which the applicability are narrow and ignore the overall.At last, relying on Dezhou-Yu’e provincial boundaries highway project, the paperresearches on the methods of traffic volume prediction. In terms of traffic survey, thepaper uses “the software package of Foxpro” and “laws of series-parallel”tocheek the original data and analyzes the comprehensive transportation. In terms ofsocial economic forecasting, the paper uses quadratic rolynomials and threeexponential smoothing methods to forecast it, and then adopts qualitative andquantitative analyses. In terms of traffic occurence, the paper uses the prospective ofelastic coeffient forecast method to calculate occurrence attract traffic volume. Interms of traffic distribution, the paper uses Frator method, gravity model and logitmodel to predict occurrence, induced and transfer traffic volume, and thensummarizes the characteristic years’ OD forms. In terms of traffic assignment, thepaper uses equilibrium model to assignment the traffic volume of regarding roads andsimulates the volume flow direction of interchange bridges, and then analyzes thevariation of traffic volume in the future. Throughout the process, the paper usesTransCAD and the optimization methods to improve the scientificity of theprediction.The paper uses the relative theory to optimize traditional four step methods inorder to predict Dezhou-Yu’e provincial boundaries highway traffic volume, whichprovides the similar projects for certain reference value.