Failure Regularity Analysis And Forecast On Wagon Bogie Parts

Following with the constant advance of high-speed and heavy load strategies in railway transportation, requirements on performance and reliability of wagon bogie is becoming more and more higher. Therefore, how maintenance management of bogie can be adjusted to new situation has been an emergent question to be solved. On the basis of ample failure information in Wagon Management Information System (HMIS) This thesis defines three useful models for maintenance period by carrying out research on failure mode analysis and failure distribution regularity of bogie parts and works out optimum maintenance period by fuzzy decision method, so as to propose helpful reference to maintenance management and reform of maintenance system and program for wagon bogie.In addition, this thesis builds up a risk evaluation and forecast model for bogies parts on the basis of research on failure distribution regularity and maintenance period. It's achieved by calculating failure distribution function of each failure mode based on existing bogie failure datum, then simulating the occurring times of failure by Ment-Carlo method in order to forecast occurring rate of failure in a certain period and evaluating risk.It can be demonstrated through calculation results that the research on failure distribution regularity, maintenance period and risk evaluation model in this thesis is basically compliant with the reality in maintenance management. The research methods in the thesis have provided a scientific method for maintenance management of passenger& wagon bogie with a good engineering application value.