Capacity Reliability Analysis Of The Transfer System Between Urban Rail Transit And Bus Transit

The transfer system between urban railway transit and bus transit is very important to achieve coordinated development of the urban public transit system. With the rapid development of the city, people are more concerned about the traffic system reliability and the ability of the traffic system to adjust to the changing condition. Through the analysis of the reliability of the transfer system between urban railway transit and bus transit, we can evaluate the transfer system more scientifically and then take effective measures to improve traffic condition.Firstly, this paper analyses the transfer system between urban railway transit and bus transit thoroughly and analyses various facilities in the transfer system in details.Secondly, according to the methods to determine the road capacity, the capacity of the transfer system is divided into three categories: theoretical transfer capacity, actual transfer capacity and design transfer capacity. Then the factors to influence to the transfer capacity are analyzed and the relationship between design transfer capacity and the LOS(level of service) is discussed. Using the pedestrian flow theory, the methods to calculate the actual transfer capacity and the design transfer capacity of various facilities is given.Thirdly, on the basis of the analysis of the randomness in the transfer system, the concept for the transfer capacity reliability is given. Under the premise of a certain supply and demand distribution function of the transfer system, the method to calculate the transfer capacity reliability is analyzed. Using the method, we can calculate the transfer capacity reliability of the passage facility, the stair facility and the ticket checking facility. Then the capacity reliability of the transfer system can be calculated with the theory of series-parallel system.At Last, the transfer system between urban railway transit and bus transit in Xizhimen passenger transport hub is analyzed as case study. On the basis of the designed calculation procedure, the variation of the transfer capacity reliability on the condition of the changed passenger flow demand and LOS is explored.