Comprehensive Evaluation On Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Changzhi City

Water resources,as one of most significant factors that impact on natural environment and human existence, is a indispensable fundamental natural resource. As a severe water inadequacy area, water resources has become a bottleneck that will influence and restrain the whole city economy and sustainable development of ChangZhi city.Now and in near future, how to correctly evaluate and judge the water resources bearing capacity of regional development in ChangZhi city and study the water resources carrying capacity in ChangZhi city is important to realize the sustainable development ,to correspond the relationship between the water resources and the environment ,the life people ,the agricultural and industrial development., in turn ,formulate the development strategies harmonious with water resources have significant realistic meaning to the relationship between water resources and national economic development of ChangZhi city.The water resources and its current using condition in ChangZhi city of ShanXi province are analyzed in this paper. Based on the development rate of ShanXi province ,the water demand &water supply from the year 2000 to 2020 is analyzed , first each of the nine factors , i.e , per capita water resource available, utilization rate of water resource , per capita water requirement quantity , water supply module, industry water requirement quantity per 10000 industrial product value, regional irrigation rate, life needs the water quota , water requirement module and environment water use rate , is analyzed. then the water resources carrying capacity in Changzhi city is evaluated by applying the fuzzy comprehensive estimation ,at last ,the water resource security and countermeasure are given.This paper can be divided into seven part: Part 1 Water is an important resource and limit to urban development and should be regarded as a basic factor of urban planning and construction. From the view-point of water resources supporting capacity, the calculation methods are introduced,the model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established to evaluate the situation of water resources carrying capacity of 2000,2005,2010 and 2020.Part 2 The research status quo and development trend of water resources carrying capacity .The author mostly analyzes carrying capacity research history and development process, the advances of its concepts, models and research prospect.Part 3 The average annual amount of water and its exploiting status quo in ChangZhi city It has many affinities among water resources carrying capacity and region natural environment ,the quality and quantity of water resources etc. This part summarizes ChangZhi's precipitation , the average annual amount of water ,water resources quality and quantity together with space -time distribution.Part 4 Calculation and evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in ChangZhi city firstly , its correlative theories are expounded. After analyzing the influence factors of the regional water resources carrying capacity,the author studies the theory arrangements and explores the theory system of regions water resources carrying capacity. Its calculation step ,appraisal index system and classification system are introduced and then water resources carrying capacity in ChangZhi city is calculated and evaluated in actual and theoretical condition. finally ,the author generally appraises it.Part 5 The author applies the model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to the research of the carrying capacity of water resources in ChangZhi city. A forecast is made according to water resources atatistic data of ChangZhi city ,and obtained good results.Part 6 On the basis of upper scientific researches, the author puts forward countermeasures of water resources.Part 7 After studying on the water resource carrying capacity, the author gets the following conclutions :Seen from the research result, it is feasible to put the fussy comprehensive evaluation method into the analysis to the bearing capacity of water resources in ChangZhi city .It can provide the quantitative forecast and optimization means to social & economic development and ecological environment protection etc .The paper also can provide certain references to the sustainable usage research of water resource in ChangZhi city in the future.