Research On Flood Control Forecast Operation Taking Into Account The Human Activity Impact And The Uncertainty Of River Conveyance Capacity

According to the -location of forecasting field up or down from the reservoir, hydrological forecasting can be divided into two aspects, those are, the flood forecasting of upstream basin and the river conveyance capacity of downstream reservoir. It's very important to obtain that information as quickly as possible for reservoir, as well as its defending aims.From the view of solving problems existing in hydrological forecasting, firstly, based on pioneer's study, further research was carried through on flood forecasting using real-time correction technology. Then the paper analyzes the possible factors afflicting river conveyance capacity and its calculation method, latterly fuzzy discursion rules about river conveyance capacity was developed. Finally, based on former study, this paper establishes new flood operation rules considering uncertainty of river conveyance capacity for better reservoir real-time operation. The contents and results of this paper are listed, as follows.(1) Due to certain flow forecasting shall take its reservoirs' running disciplinarian into account but be short of its small-scale reservoir and embankment running data for certain drainage area, the analytical method based on Naive Bayes classification for spatial scaleable reservoirs' running disciplinarian is introduced to forecast data of big scaleable reservoir for full drainage area just using correlative data of small scaleable reservoir. And then the analysis results are applied to flow forecasting. Last, taking the upriver drainage area beyond Fengman's Wudaogou control station for instance, the method is employed to correct the flow forecasting for two flood disasters. The results shows that the precision of correctional flow forecasting is improved observably compared with the natural one and the flood forecasting correctional results can play a leading role in reservoir operation.(2) Systemic analyzing the possible factors afflicting river conveyance capacity and its calculation method. According to the situation of practical flux data absence for some lower river course of the reservoir, the one-dimensional river network model (MIKE11) and various project-situation combinations are introduced to stimulate the condition. Based on it, the actual conveyance capacity of main section in lower river course of the Biliuhe reservoir is calculated and analyzed, latterly fuzzy discursion rules about river conveyance capacity was developed.(3) For better reservoir real-time operation, this paper develop a new flood control forecast operation model, which takes into account the uncertainty of downstream reaches' conveyance capacity. In this model, we take river conveyance capacity as dynamic variable course, not just a constant. Latterly case study expounds the process of establishing the flood forecasting operation rules considering uncertainty of river conveyance capacity. To further attest its feasibility, the new model is adopted in operating several Flood. The results show that the model is useful and rational.Finally, the conclusion is made, and the problems for further study are reviewed.