Prospect Theory-Based Traffic Guidance System Analysis And Simulation Reaserch

With the rapid development of economy and growth of vehicles possession, it brings about great pressure for urban traffic. How to use the traffic resource in adequate, reasonable and efficient way becomes an important issue to solve the traffic problems.The traffic guidance system, an important component of ATIS system, integrates communication techniques, geographicial informations, computer networks, database technology into a comprehensive system. According with the traffic flow of the road network assigned by the route guidance system, it can realize the destination of using the traffic resource efficiently.The traffic guidance system consists of three parts that are traffic information collection and disposal, traffic guidance information algorithm and generation, traffic guidance information publishing. Traffic information algorithm has experienced many research methods: traditional Djkstra algorithm, heuristic and hierarchical path searching algorithm, artificial neural network algorithm. But those algorithms take the travelers as absolute rational men, focusing on the performability of the algorithms and ignoring travelers' psychology features. In the thesis, the travelers' route choice model was built based on the prospect theory, and travelers' psychology, individual experiences, as the influence factors, were introduced to the model so as to describe the travelers more actual.Traffic guidance generally includes multi-agent guidance and single agent guidance. Guidance information' collection, disposal and generation of the multi-agent and single agent and their influence to traveler' behavior were researched. The development process of guidance algorithm was summarized, and the responding strategies to possible negative influence under the effect of guidance information were introduced.On the basis of multi-purpose Repast simulation platform, agent-based traffic guidance system was built. It conducted a simulation case for the true road network by simulating the road operational conditions under the influence of Variable Message Sign (VMS) and vehicle navigation system. The applicability of prospect theory was proved by using VMS-based simulation to test the rationality and vehicle navigation system-based simulation to test the advancement of the travelers' route choice model.