Electric Power Equipment's Life Cycle Cost Assessment And Model Based On Grey System Theory

Along with the quick development of electric power industry, electric power equipment's investment increases unceasingly. Carry out the active control of electric power equipment cost, relates to electric power industry's healthy development. However, in the research of electric power equipment's cost model currently, the initial period invested cost of equipment has been considered only, but the running and sustaining cost of equipment has been neglected, although this part holds a very important share in the entire equipment investment, therefore, the research on electric power equipment's cost model has an important economic value.Life Cycle Cost(LCC) analysis is an idea if considering item's long-term economy benefit, which makes LCC minimum if all things considered such as purchasing, fixing, running, sustaining, updating and discarding of equipment or system. The LCC is a kind of system analysis method, which tries to make the long cost come to its minimum point.But in LCC analysis, the way how to reduce electric power equipment cost has been considered, but the changes of electric power equipment effectiveness which produce along with it have been neglected, however, electric power equipment effectiveness's realization is the foundation that guarantees safe and steady operation of electric power system. So the cost and the effectiveness of electric power equipment are need to be considered comprehensively, and they can use to assess the feasibility of LCC model.The applied premise of the traditional methods of LCC decision and cost-effectiveness assessment is that a huge amount of historical data has been already known, but it's difficult to receive so much data in practical application. Under the premise that the information is insufficient, the grey system theory can get accurate analysis result as far as possible. So the paper proposes applying grey system theory to carry on the analyzation of LCC and cost-effectiveness assessment for electric power equipment. The main research works in this paper are as follows:â‘ The paper discusses the content and the characteristic of every part of electric power equipment LCC, compares among several LCC estimation methods which are used commonly, points out that these estimation methods cannot estimate to LCC accurately in the situations that data is little. â‘¡The paper studies the quantitative estimation model of electric power equipment's LCC. On the basis that the electric power equipment's LCC is set off one-off investment cost and running and sustaining cost,the paper introduces the instantaneous value calculation into the analyzation of one-off investment cost, and introduces the forecasting theory based on grey relational weighing combination and the most relational degree principle into the analyzation of running and sustaining cost, estimates the minimum LCC by analyzing the two parts comprehensively.â‘¢The paper analyzes the meaning of electric power equipment's cost-effectiveness assessment. Aiming at the feature that the factors of electric power equipment's cost-effectiveness assessment are grey and fuzzy,the paper proposes a cost-effectiveness's assessment method based on grey fuzzy. The triangular membership function is built up to describe the fuzzy relation between assessment factors and assessment grades, the unlikelihood extent of fuzzy relation is described by leading in grey scale value of pixel. On this basis the grey fuzzy comprehensive assessment is conducted, and the assessment result more near to the practice is achieved.â‘£Validate the validity of method proposed in this paper by cases.