Study On The Economic Analysis Of The Xiang Yu Cargo Route Based On Uncertainty Analysis

Xiang Yu Cargo Route connect to Xiang, Yuan, Chuan, Yu four provinces(cities) of main economical area, with sufficient supply. Traditional supply mainly is stoneware and china goes from YunNan, Guizhou provinces into HuNan. Recently developed new supply includes coal and fruits from FengJie to DongTing Lake, paper from DongTing Lake to Yu. To be developed supply mainly includes chemical raw material, commodity, aluminum ingot and paper pulp from HuNan to SiChuan, and subsidiary agricultural products. In HuNan, with the technology improvement of XiangTan steel factory, annual output of steel reaches 5 million t, and sends over 0.2 million t of steel to ChongQin yearly. Open the XiangYu water line can improve the river-shipping of HuNan province, and extends the course for 1200km, which has significant impact on improving the competition of HuNan water line, and help the economic growing in the related area.The text includes 7 chapters, first chapter is introduction, clarify the purpose, signification, main content and technology path of the research. The Second chapter is Xiang Yu water line resource and course analysis, and full analysis is made based on the current situation and planning of water line and ports in ChongQin, HuNan Province. The Third chapter is Analysis on the parameter that will impact the economy of the ships, mainly analyses the parameter that will largely impact, they are oil price, ship price and Load ratio. And it also described the necessity of uncertainty analysis. The fourth chapter is ship economy analysis under certain condition, decided the proper ship type of Xiang Yu water line and in oil prices, water prices and the distribution of vessels to determine the economic circumstances of the calculation to get ACC and RFR and finally get the mainstream ship type. Chapter 5 is statistical analysis of Operating parameters and random simulation, statistics and research against price of oil and ship. Collected a large number of ships and oil price data, did statistics and stochastic simulation and introduce into the ship economic calculation. In chapter 6, based on the research of RFR probability distribution under uncertain operating parameter, it takes stochastic simulation against oil price, ship price and draft, and did research on RFR probability of different ton classes at last. In the chapter 7, it is the summarization and expectation of the text.