The Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Of China's Importing Petroleum Marine Transportation Safety

As important industrial raw materials and strategic resources, petroleum plays a key role in promoting economic development and realizing national strategy. The guarantee of sufficient petroleum supply is directly related to the safety of our country's politic, economy and military. Accompanied by the rapid growth of the national economy in China, petroleum demand increases in high speed, and the gap between the supply and demand of domestic petroleum is enlarging year by year, importing petroleum is an important means to alleviate supply and demand indentation. In 2008, petroleum import of China is 178.88 million tons, which ranked second in the world and accordingly petroleum import dependence degree has already achieved 51%. And more than 80% of petroleum import is transported by ocean, so the marine transportation safety of the imports of petroleum resources is one of the crucial links which has a great influence on the stability of the supply of petroleum import. The imports of petroleum resources in China is mainly from Middle-east and Africa, with marine transportation, the route is via the Strait of Malacca which has a high frequency of pirate events and lots of regions and countries with complicated geographical environment and poor stabilities of politics and military, all these lead to lots of hidden security troubles to the petroleum marine transportation. Therefore, how to evaluate properly the safety of the marine transportation of petroleum import in China in order to insure the safety of petroleum import is the primary question that we must face and pay attention to.In China, the current research on the security of petroleum marine transport is still at its start stage, and there is no clear definition of petroleum marine transportation safety or systemic evaluation method. Based on the researches both at home and abroad, this paper gives a comprehensive definition of petroleum marine transportation safety, which lays the foundation for the evaluation of petroleum marine transportation safety. This paper adopts grey fuzzy model at last after analyzing the feature of petroleum marine transportation safety evaluation and the merits and faults of existing evaluation methods. Based on the grey-fuzzy aggregate, Grey fuzzy model uses grey scale and fuzzy relation to describe information's insufficiency and the relation between influencing factors and the safety level of petroleum marine transportation.According to the definition of petroleum marine transportation safety and the setting up principles of the indicator system, through analysis of factors which have influence on the petroleum marine transportation safety, this paper selects some indicators from those factors and at last sets up multi-level indicator system of petroleum marine transportation safety. The indicator system is composed of four aspects: petroleum goods safety, oil tankers and equipments safety, marine transportation routes safety and the abilities to measure emergency. Since the evaluation of petroleum marine transportation safety is a dynamic evaluation, this paper uses the safety of China's importing petroleum marine transportation from the year 2005 to 2008 as evaluate targets, firstly applies AHP to determine the weights of indicators, then sets up grey-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrices according to standards of membership grade, finally applies grey-fuzzy model to evaluate China's marine transportation safety from 2005 to 2008 and get the safety level as well as analysis of the results. It is found that the result and the status of 2005-2008's petroleum marine transportation safety fit well by comparison, indicating that the grey-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is quotable for petroleum marine transportation safety study. The research results will provide a reference for the evaluation of petroleum marine transportation safety.For the purpose of reinforcing China's future importing petroleum marine transportation safety, based on the analytical results of 2005-2008's transportation evaluation, this paper proposes measurements respectively from the aspect of stabilizing petroleum supply and guaranteeing petroleum marine transportation channel safety, which has a realistic meaning for the guarantee of petroleum imports supply for China.