| With the development of China's economy and the increase of residents' income,the demand to automobiles is growing rapidly and creating a huge market of automobile transportation.It is the best time for China Railway Special Cargo Automobile Logistics(CRSCAL) Company to develop automobile logistics business and make full use of railway's advantages in volume and distance.Car liner trains is the main products of CRSCAL Company and it has the characteristics of long transportation distance,high speed,high volume,high profit and simple organization.In order to further improve the competition capability of CRSCSAL Company,to broaden the share in car transportation market and to reduce transportation cost,it is necessary to carry on a research on the operation plan of car liner trains.On the basis of analyzing the current situation and development of CRSCAL Company,the development process and the main characteristics of car liner trains are outlined in this paper.Then the operation conditions,operation plan and transportation organization of car liner trains are mainly studied.Firstly,17 cities are chosen as the car liner trains sending cities according to their current car trains operation situation, economic development level and car transportation demands.The method of cluster analysis is used to classify the 17 liner trains sending cities.According to the flow and volume of the cars of the liner trains sending cities,the 33 car liner trains reaching cities and their types are determined;Secondly,the increasing rate method,the production-transportation coefficient method and combinational forecasting method are used to forecast the car transport volume of the cities in 2012 and 2015.Based on the car volume OD distribution in 2008,the car volume ODs in 2012 and 2015 are forecasted.Finally,based on the future car volume ODs,the weights and makeups of car liner trains,a detail car liner trains operation plan of 2012 and 2015 are developed respectively.
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