Risk Analysis Theory And Its Application In Rizhao Reservoir Operation Management

Earth-rock dam as a retaining buildings of the reservoir hinge is widely used,due to adapt to a wide range,dam construction materials can be used local materials,good economic returns,the construction speed,construction diversion easy solution.China has built large , medium and small water conservancy and hydropower project,the earth-rock dams are more than 90%. The overtopping and dam body instability are two main reasons for the crash of earth-rock dam. China from 1950 to 1990,a total of diffuse dam 1147 due to floods and overtoppin, accounting for about dam accident in the same period the total number of 46.6 percent. Crash in the dam,the earth-rock dam as high as the proportion of 70.5 percent. Therefore,the strengthening study of the earth-rock dam to conduct risk analysis and risk assessment is very theoretical and practical significance for reservoir project to provide a scientific decision-making basis.Dam risk is that the past 10 years developed a new concept of security management in abroad.Its greatest feature is not only concerned about dam safety,but also the impact to the downstream for outburst of the dam. How to improve dam safety,balance the relationship between the dam safety, public safety and the use of water resources? At present,the risk management techniques being gradually in various fields to promote the use can be used to solve this problem,The introduction of risk management to dam safety management can effectively overcome the shortcomings of the existing management and protect public safety of the downstream,enhance the level of dam safety management has a realistic and urgent significance,is also an inevitable choice of the dam safety management.Based on risk analysis method research in this paper,I construct the risk calculation model and analysis the risk analysis of earth-rock dam of Rizhao Reservoirs, then find out potential hazards and accident in order to grasp the existence of the danger of earth-rock dam accident types. Provide the rules of design and management of the dam. The main content of this article reads as follows: (1) Introduce of the basic concepts of risk analysis , research , uncertainty analysis and the calculation of accident probability methods detailedly.(2) Research earth-rock dam project withfailure theory, analysis the safety risk and construct the risk calculation model.find out the failure mode.Construct three risk calculation model for overtopping failure and unstable failure of earth-rock dam.(3) Analysis the uncertainty of main damage mode of earth-rock dam reservoir of the Rizhao.Analysis risk rate of main damage mode with risk analysis method.(4) Uncertainty of the slope stability analysis with analysis deterministic,and compared the results with risk analysis data. Analysis and evaluate the flood accident risk of the dam.(5) Through calculating the rate of a single risk, we synthetically get the composite risk of earth-rock dam in application...