Research On Brittleness Theory Based On Complex Traffic System

Along with the system structure becoming more complex, the function becoming more perfect and the degree of automation becoming higher, the brittleness problem of system is becoming more and more a serious phenomena. When the brittleness of system is motivated, it will lead the whole system to collapse, bringing immeasurable loss to system. Thus analyzing the reason of brittleness being motivated, the mechanism of brittleness, the identification and evaluation of brittle source, brittleness degree of system and so on become a very urgent task.This paper, firstly, shows the importance of doing research on complex system brittleness by introducing the current development of complex system. Then the definition and the characteristics of brittleness , the relation of brittleness theories and other scientific theories are given. On that basis, the definition of brittle link function is put forward.Secondly, Fuzzy AHP can solve complex decision problems with good practicability and effectiveness, in consideration of which, fuzzy AHP is used to evaluate the brittleness source of complex traffic system. in this paper. Through the analysis of factors that affect the traffic system safety with a example, the brittleness factors that lead traffic system into collapse are found. The simulation result shows that adopting the Fuzzy AHP method to analyze the system brittleness risk can raise the evaluation accuracy, and lay certain foundation for deep research into system brittleness.Moreover, the effect of system brittle environment on system brittleness is analyzed and the environment is broken down into a two layer structure which includes brittle events and brittle factors. Through analysis, brittle factors are the essential elements of system brittle environment and essential cause of system brittleness. In view of the relative risk analysis theories, the brittle degree of system is brought to evaluate the system brittleness.Finally, Fuzzy AHP method based on brittle factors and maximum entropy principle are adopted into the under layer analysis of complex traffic system brittleness model. The deep research into getting the best system load information is made. Through corresponding numerical algorithm to solve unknown Lagrange multiplier in maximum entropy principle is designed. Then through the simulation analysis of a concrete traffic system, the simulation result of loading information amount and brittleness degree are obtained.