Pratical Research On Fuzzy Risk Of Water Resources In Jinhua City

Based on geography and the trends of socio-economic development in Jinhua City, analyzes the current situation of Jinhua City's water resources. Finally found there is a potential risk of water shortages in Jinhua where located in moist area. Existing methods of risk analysis of water resources are basically described by calculating the probability of risk to the risk system, which is bound to suffer "insufficient data" resulting "imprecision of probability estimation", and thus can not objectively reflect the nature of risk. In view of this point, using a new method-Fuzzy Information Optimization Processing, study the fuzzy risk of water resources in Jinhua City. Main research results are as follows:(1)Combining the characteristics of water resources in Jinhua City, selecting risk indicators of water resources, calculate the fuzzy expected value of Jinhua City's water resource risk by interior-outer-set model.(2)In order to show the value of fuzzy risk, apply the model of soft risk zoning map to transform fuzzy sets into clearly sets. Thus under a given a level, three risk values can be calculated:a conservative risk value, a venture risk value, and a maximum probability risk value.(3)Based on GIS software, the fuzzy expected value is represented in the form of maps. As a adopts different values, it is presented a kind of risk map with hierarchy and multiple values. Each a level, is given corresponding maps, including conservative risk maps and venture risk maps. Selection of a a value depends on the confidence in different groups of people, whereas selection of a conservative risk value or venture risk value depends on the risk preference of these people.(4)Comparative analysis of different levels of risk maps, and the same level of conservative risk maps and venture risk maps, there are a variety of risk characteristics and regional differences in the administrative units.(5)Aimed at the soft risk zoning map, select "high risk area" which under the 0.3 level-Jindong District as an example to provide measures which can avoid the risk of water shortages.Fuzzy information optimization processing was first used to evaluate the fuzzy risk of water resources, which made some achievements. It was not only solved "imprecise probability estimation" which resulting from "small sample" and unclear relationship between the risk, but also explore the implicit risk information of the raw data as much as possible. Both of these could make analysis more objective and comprehensive, which providing regulation options for policy-makers. In addition, the risk values presented in the form of maps, reflected fuzzy imprecision of risk assessment directly. Finally, analyzed the risk of an administrative unit to lead the way of using soft risk zoning maps, which was not only leads the overall scientific management and provided an important basis for decision-making, but also for theoretical workers to formulate the policy.