Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Applied Research, Risk Analysis Of Large-scale Water Conservancy Projects Duration

The characters in water-power engineering such as large investment, long construction period and complicated technique make the investment, construction period and quality of the engineering become three main control target in project management. Especially how to shorten the construction period to get the benefit as soon as possible is the key point of all the above problems. As the construction of water-power engineering is mainly influenced by the environment conditions and the supply of resources, there are always many stochastic and unpredictable factors make the time arrangement of each item have several feasible schemes, and the different risks for different schemes. Then, how to arrive at the best solution becomes a problem for the policy makers. In this thesis, the author combined system engineering theory and fuzzy mathematics with water-power engineering, by the research of fuzzy mathematics and risk analysis technique, the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and risk analysis technique in the decision of construction period and selection of different schemes is discussed. And the proposed analysis technique is validated by the application of practical engineering.