Quantitative Analysis Of Human Factor On Agricultural Drought In Xiushan County

Taking Xiushan county as the object and applying qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper studies the influence factors on agricultural drought, and discusses human factor's action on agricultural drought. Taking age as unit, the paper compares human factor's action on agricultural drought in every age since 1950's, and studies the causes and change tendency.The paper is composed by four parts as follow:The first part is preface. The part analyses the significance and background of this study. Then, combining the current study situation, it poses its own thinking and way.The second part is the study on the cause and mechanism of forming agricultural drought. At first, the part gives a brief account of natural, social and economic condition, and the characteristics of drought in the past in Xiushan county. Then, the part analyses in greater detail the mechanism of forming drought. It thinks the causes of agricultural drought includes human factor as well as natural factor, and human factor acts on agricultural drought in several ways as follow: .water conservancy facilities, ecology environment, crops and plant structure, soil improvement, water and soil conservation etc.The third part is the quantitative analysis about human factor of agricultural drought over last SOyears in Xiushan county. The part is finished by two steps. The first step: it establishes index system about the losses and the causes of agricultural drought. To the losses, the paper takes the rate of loss in grain as index; to natural factor, the paper establishes mathematical model according to the change on meteorological factor in one year and between years ; to human factor, for its complexity ,the paper takes two-gradeindex. Beginning with the water conservancy index, plant structure index, ecology index, soil improvement and water-soil conservation index, policy index, adopting the way of weight, it combines them into human factor. The result indicates human factor aggravated the losses of agricultural drought in 1950's and 1960's, but it relieved the losses from 1970's to 1990's. The second step: quantitative analyses the influence of human factor on agricultural drought. On the basis of establishing mathematical model, the paper analyses the influence on two sides. On one side ,it analyses the influence of human factor on the change of losses of agricultural drought .The result indicates, comparing with the losses in 1950's, the influence of human factor on the change of losses of agricultural drought is 83.9% in 1960's, and human factor aggravated the loss, but in 1970's, 1980's and 1990's, the influence individually is 63.2%, 79.9% and 91.9%, and human factor relieved the losses. On the other side ,it analyses the influence degree of human factor on the losses of agricultural drought. Supposing the influence is zero in 1950's, the influence aggravated the losses in 1960's and the influence degree is 27.9%, but in 1970's, 1980's and 1990's, the influence relieved the losses and the influence degree individually is 6.8%, 15.3% and 39.4%.The forth part is conclusion and discussion. From the analysis about human factor, we know because of the destroying to ecology, the lack of water conservancy facilities and unfair policy, human factor aggravated the losses of agricultural drought in 1950's and 1960's. But because of the input on agricultural infrastructure and the policy on fighting drought, human factor relived the losses of agricultural drought in 1970's, 1980's and 1990's.