| The banana moth, Opogona sacchari (Bojer), is an important invasive pest of many ornamentals and crops in China. The occurrence of this pest was investigated in Jiangsu province. On the basis of experiments and information of the biology, the data which influence the geographic distribution of banana moth was assembled and entered in a computerized geographic system (ArcView GIS 3.2) to study on the geographic distribution in China. Meanwhile, banana moth's risk level was analyzed and the risk management was also presented by applying the pest risk analysis model.In Jiangsu province, there were 4 generations of the insect per year, and the form overwintering is larva. The hosts of the banana moth were 10 species belonging to 5 families. At 25 ℃, fed on Pachira macrocarpa, the mean time of every development was as follows: eggs, 5.7 days; larvae, 34.4 days; pupae, 14.9 days, and the whole generation, 57.6 days.The influence of temperature on the development, survival and fecundity of Opogona sacchari (Bojer) at 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34℃ and the life tables at these temperatures were also presented. The results showed that the maximal fecundity was observed at 22℃, the shortest duration of the whole generation was 46.1 days and the highest survival rate was 0.37 at 31℃. By linear regression method and the optimum seeking method to analyze the thermal threshold and the thermal sum, the results showed that the former method was better than the latter, and the thermal threshold for eggs, larvae, pupae and eggs to adults were 7.80, 12.51, 11.15, 9.27 ℃ and the thermal sum were 613.88, 173.11, 95.66 , 758.80 day-degrees, respectively. The population trend index were 32.10, 33.30, 38.58, 40.54, 45.12 and 0.77 at the 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34℃ respectively. The adaptable temperature range for the development of the banana moth was between 19℃ to 31℃, while the generation could hardly complete the life cycle at 34 ℃. It was very difficult to hatchfor the egg when the temperature was above 38℃, and no egg could hatch when the temperature was above 41℃. In addition, the egg could hardly hatch in the surroundings of extreme wet. The hatching rate will decrease after the eggs were immersed for one hour in the water, and the eggs about 50% could not hatch while the eggs were immersed for 48 hours. The supper-cooling points of the pre-winter larva, mid-winter larva, and post-winter larva were - 4.36℃, -6.44℃, and -4.89℃ respectively. There were different mortalities of Opogona sacchari (Bojer) at different low temperatures. The major larvae would died after 72h at - 2℃ , and all died after 48h at-5℃. The banana moth could hardly survive over the winter on outside in Yangzhou.Based on the studies above and ArcView GIS 3.2, the forecasting results preliminarily indicated that the possible optimum establishment area include 79 counties and cities belonging to 7 provinces and autonomous regions of South China and West-south China, ranged from 16.5° N to 27.9° N and from 97.8° E to 119.7° E. The potentially suitable establishment area include 240 counties and cities belonging to 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of West China, South China, West-south China, Middle China, West-north China and North China, ranged from 22.9° N to 37.1° N and from 91.1° E to 122.7° E. The result of the risk analysis showed that the risk level of banana moth has gotten the risk level of quarantine pest. So the pest should be listed on the sheet of quarantine pests. At the same time, the risk management for controlling banana moth was also evaluated in this paper. All the results will benefit for working out new regulations to control banana moth...
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