Risk Analysis Of Several Serious Quarantine Pests To Jiangsu Province

According to the specific condition of Jiangsu province and characteristic of pests occurrence, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel, Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) and Eriosoma lanigerum Hausm were identified as the quarantine pests which have the potential risk to agriculture of Jiangsu province. The geographic distribution in Jiangsu province and China of these four pests were studied by using CLIMEX and GIS software (ArcGIS 8.1). Meanwhile, the initial pest risk analysis model for Jiangsu province was built up, and four pest risk levels were analyzed and evaluated by applying this model.On the basis of occurrence and spread in China, related literatures collected both in home and abroad, combined with analysis of the biology and bioecology characteristics, the datum which influence the geographic distribution of four pests were assembled and entered in a software CLIMEX and a computerized geographic system (ArcGIS 8.1) to study on the geographic distribution in China and Jiangsu province. Based on above studies, the forecasting results preliminarily indicated as follows: the possible suitable establishment area of FranJdiniella occidentalis (Pergande) including 77 counties and cities belonging to 27 provinces and autonomous, 4 municipalities and 1 special administrative region. The ecoclimate index value of Nanjing and Xuzhou in Jiangsu province is 52 and 35, respectively. The possible suitable establishment area of Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) including 68 counties and cities belonging to 24 provinces and autonomous, 4 municipalities and 1 special administrative region. The ecoclimate index value of Nanjing and Xuzhou in Jiangsu province is 29 and 4, respectively. The possible optimum establishment area of Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel including 46 counties and cities belonging to 6 provinces of South China, West-south China and East China, ranged from 16.32° N to 26.35° N and from 97.51 ° E to 117.395° E. The potential suitable establishment area including 373 counties andcities belonging to 28 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of East China, West-south China, West-north China, Middle China, South China and North China, ranged from 22.59° N to 48.03° N and from 75.59° E to 132.11° E. The possible optimum establishment area of Eriosoma lanigerum Hausm including 11 counties and cities belonging to Yunnan and Sichuan provinces of West-south China, ranged from 24.21° N to 27.54° N and from 98.3° E to 102.33° E. The potential suitable establishment area including 379 counties and cities belonging to 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of East China, West-south China, Middle China, West-north China and North China, ranged from 23.36° N to 48.03° N and from 75.59° E to 132.58° E. However, Jiangsu province is the moderate region for four pests. In order to make the quantitative assessment of potential establishment area of western flower thrips in Jiangsu province, the fuzzy mathematics analytical methods were used. The results showed that the potential distribution of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) in Jiangsu could be divided into four climate zone which was the most suitable areas, suitable areas, inferior suitable areas and possible suitable areas respectively.Meanwhile, specific pest risk analysis model to Jiangsu province was set up. Applying this system to analyze the preliminary results show that the risk of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard), Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel and Eriosoma lanigerum Hausm to Jiangsu province is 2.17, 1.86, 1.93 and 1.56, respectively. The risk degree of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is high harmful and the rest are middle harmful to Jiangsu Province.At last, the risk management for controlling these four pests was also porposed in this paper, and all the results will benefit for phytosanitary branch to make a reference.