Simulaten Study On Impacts Of Clmate Change On The Production Of Wheat

Drought is a main restrict factor for North China. The drought situation is more and more serious in the background of Global Climate changes. The crop models of CERES-Wheat, calibrated and validated, were linked with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS to assess the impact of climate change on wheat in their main growing areas in North China. During the process of simulation, 20-year (1980-2000) test field data and simultaneous tested weather data were used to validate the simulative capacity of CERES-Wheat crop model in North China. Weather data simulated by PRECIS under SERS-A2(2071-2079) and SERES-B2(2071-2090) and the test field data were used to validate the associated simulative capacity of CERES-Wheat and PRECIS. The sensitivity experiment of the CERES-Wheat model to water was conducted. Then control water the wheat under A2,B2 climate change scenario, with the heat and CO2 effect, were simulated respectively. The results were as follows: (1) In the ten sites of North China, different areas and climate conditions will have different optimum water conditions. Variation scope of optimum water conditions is 40%~80%. The yield is higher in A2 than B2 in the region of Neimeng Guyang,Qinghai Huangyuan,Gansu Tianshui,Shaanxi Wugong and Xizang Lasa . The yield is higher in B2 than A2 in the region of Gansu Dunhuang,Heilunjiang Huma,Xinjiang Aletai,Shaxi Linfen and Taigu . (2)Without the effects of CO2, wheat yield will increase under optimum water condition in the future. With CO2 effects, wheat yield have great extent increase. (3) The stages of Winter wheat were more shorten than Spring wheat. And the yield of Shanxi Taigu will be obviously increased if the sowing stages delay. (4)In the future, grain weight of spring wheat will increase and winter wheat is contrary regardless of effects of CO2. (5) In the future, temperature is rise, but its influence is not very wide for the N% of grain. If the concentration of CO2 increase N% of grain will reduce. So the increases of CO2 concentration have negative influence to the quality of wheat.