Simulation Of The Heat Injury On Rice Production In Jiangsu Province Under The Compact Of Climate Change

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC, the global average surface temperature has increased by0.74℃on the past one hundred years, and it would rise by1.1to6.4℃to the end of the20th century. In the context of global warming, Chinese climate has also undergone a significant change in the mean surface temperature increased0.5to0.8℃, higher than the average global warming at the same period. Agricultural production in China will have serious repercussions. Rice is the most important food crops in China and the production plays an important role in the national and regional food security issues. It’s also the main harvest crops and food crops in Jiangsu Province. The varieties of rice are mainly the medium rice and late rice. As the critical period of rice-growing coincides with the summer, the risk of heat injury would be more serious. Therefore, the study of high-temperature damage on rice is very necessary.This study based on the CERES-Rice model of the DSSAT system, combined with the meteorological data, soil data, historical production of rice, field observations and experimental data of Jiangsu, build the rice growth model in line with the improvement of Jiangsu Province. The World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase3(CMIP3) multi-model dataset (CMIP3data) under the A2and A1B climate scenario data combined with the climate change of Jiangsu Province, was used to simulate the effect of heat injury on rice growth and yield with a reasonable simulation of high-temperature step. The main conclusions are as follows:1. Crop model validation:The CERES-Rice was used to simulate rice flowering period, fertility and yield, and the results show that the model has a good ability to simulate. The rice experimental data of Huaiyin, Xuzhou and Ganyu are used to verify on spatial station. The simulation output and actual data fitting better, so the CERES-Rice model has a better ability to simulate the change of spatial station.2. Climate model validation:Three station about Xuzhou, Huaiyin and Changzhou were selected to validate the climate model. The results show that the model made a best simulation in daily maximum temperature and the daily minimum temperature. As the precipitation’s randomness, the simulation is very difficult. In addition to differences in some months, the simulated precipitation trends and the measured value are more in line. The solar radiation measured with analog values fit better in consistent trends, so the model has a better ability to simulate solar radiation.3. The analysis of climate change of Jiangsu Province in the nearly fifty years: Jiangsu’s temperature showed an upward trend in the nearly fifty years. The mutation of mean minimum temperature and mean temperature occurred in1988to1989and from1988to1990, respectively. Both have a quasi-4a cycle on the cycle oscillation and showed that the temperature of Jiangsu was warming recent years. Overall, the annual precipitation increased slightly by15.47mm/10a and a mutation occurred in1986to1987, increased57.85mm of precipitation than before the mutation. Nearly fifty years, the average number of hours of sunshine is2128.18h, the tendency rate is-68.37h/10a.4. In the context of future climate change, the rice flowering and growing period days were shortened and the yields also declined. When the high temperature strength is constant, the longer high temperature was, the more rice yield decreased. When the high temperature duration is constant, the more high temperature was, the more rice yield decreased. Booting-heading stage of rice was more susceptible to heat injury.5. The change of the sowing time has a certain impact on rice yield. Overall, the rice sowing time was appropriate advanced will increase the production of rice. When the sowing date was postponed, the production was declined. Changed of rice’s high temperature coefficient G4could ease the impact of production caused by heat injury. When the G4was appropriately increased, it could effectively improved the rice yield.