Planting Information Monitoring Criteria And Output Forecasting Methods For Crops At County Level

Basing on the methods of historical data analysis, regional planning and crop calendar constitution, recommended China Standards (GB/T) specification, visiting investigation and farming information monitoring during key periods,"Technical specification for the census of information on Crops Planting for Counties"was complied , Dali country was chosen as research object which is not only one of the 800 biggest grain output counties but also one of the farming information monitoring experimental units for Ministry of Agriculture and Shaanxi Province. wheat , the main crop in the county was used to carry out the farming information monitoring before seeding, during seeding to seedling period, seedling to wintering period, wintering to regeneration period, regeneration to jointing period and models for the wheat output forecasting and safety estimation on the basis of dynamic monitoring during the growth periods were discussed. The results are as follows:1. According to the principle of oneness, applicability, regularity and science, structure and compile regulation in GB/T1.1-2000"Directives for standardization"referred, 37 farming information monthly calendar report forms of"Technical specification for the census of information on Crops Planting for Counties"for double cropping area in Guanzhongpingyuan, Shaanxi province, the application range, nomenclature and definition, standard cited document, report form information investigation content and character investigation contents, etc for this technical specification were specified and the standardization of farming information investigation during 2006 and 2007 in this county were made.2.Content of"Technical specification for the census of information on Crops Planting for Counties"during the period of 2006 and 2007 in this experimental unit county combined and information of wheat output time sequence and main wheat varieties referred , the output forecasting model of the wheat in different years and key growth periods were built; meanwhile, the standardized reference value for the 12 main properties was defined during the periods of seeding to seedling, seedling to wintering, wintering to regeneration, regeneration to jointing at present time.3. Based on the wheat growth process, the output safety warning coefficients and the standard reference value(denoted by z) for the red, yellow and green caution were explored. When 0≤z<60, it is red caution, indicating that there is significant crop safety risk alarm during this growth period; when 60≤z<80, it is yellow caution, indicating that attention should be paid on crop safety risk alarm ; when 80≤z<100, it is green caution, indicating that there is no crop safety risk alarm.4. Demonstrated application indicated that: the output per 667m2 for the period before seeding (yearly forecasting), seeding to seedling period, seedling to wintering period, wintering to regeneration period, regeneration to jointing period and harvest (actual output) was 258kg, 453.1kg, 396kg, 318.1kg, 296.7kg and 246kg respectively. The output safety warning coefficients were 98, 87, 80 and 93 for seeding to seedling period, seedling to wintering period, wintering to regeneration period, regeneration to jointing period, respectively. By and large, it was green caution, indicating there was no crop safety risk alarm; but there were yellow cautions for seedling to wintering period in Luohe irrigation region (z=77) and for wintering to regeneration period in Luonan irrigation region (z=69).