Grassland Agricultural Substitution Patterns For Food Security In China

Ensure food security in China is the inevitable requirement to maintain social stability.we thought the improvement of reclamation levels and growth of grain output as our highest priority on food security since ancient time, and ignored some non-grain food production. The food concept of "taking grain as the key link" had led agriculture system astray, agriculture, animal husbandry separated from each other and developed for a long time in the past, caused versions of the system have low efficiency, and soil potentiality can not be fully released. These were the burning question that must be solved for China’s food security. In this paper, with the seven ecological economic regions in China for studying area, we collect agricultural development data in the seven ecological economic regions for the past11years, using the Food Equivalent Unit (FEU) and the Arable Land Equivalent Unit (ALEU) to build index system, analyzing food security dynamic change in seven grassland ecological economic regions in China during recent years, and estimate the potential of developing grassland agriculture in China. The main results as follows:1. Food security in China is in subsistence level and exist a food gap5000×108FEU to achieve well-off society. Food production imbalances exist among all regions2000to2010, area of grain inadequate and grain surplus coexists in China. Regional difference of food supply is obvious, and this difference keeps widening.(1) Inner Mongoia-Ningxia arid grassland region, Northwest desert-shrub land region, Northeast forest-grassland region and Plateau and Huanghuaihai shrub land region have a surplus of grain; the other three regions have different degrees of grain gap. Grain production change showed that Qinghai-Tibet alpine region per capita output of grain only about75.63%of the national per capita consumption, and have a grain gap of1.29×1010FEU in2000, then per capita output of grain down from56.32%and grain gap increased to1.29×1010FEU by2010. Southwest karst shrub land region grain can be self-sufficient in2000, per capita output of grain only about94.15%of the national per capita consumption, and have a grain gap of1.95×1010FEU by2006, then per capita output of grain down from93.2%and grain gap increased to4.74×1010FEU by2010. Southeast forest-shrub land region per capita output of grain was about99.1%of the national per capita consumption, and86.71%,70.61%in2006and2010, grain gap increased from6.52×1010FEU to16.2×1010FEU in2000to2010.(2) The agriculture region (contains Plateau and Huanghuaihai shrub land region, Southwest karst shrub land region and Southeast forest-shrub land region) accounts for72.43%of the national grain production,84.18%of the national meat production, both major grain producing areas and major meat producing areas, agriculture structure was unreasonable; Seen from the food supply pattern between north and south, the south area have a grain gap of20.94×1010FEU, the north area have a grain surplus of148.93×1010FEU, south area which has better hydrothermal conditions rely on north area which has poorer hydrothermal conditions to close their grain gap, formed the "carries south boreal grain" food supply pattern, spatial structure of food supply is not reasonable.2Adjusting agricultural structure and changing pattern of food production, by converting20%of the existing cultivated land for grass-crop rotation, establishing5%of the available grassland as high-yielding pasture to developing grassland agriculture, and its food output forecast analysis results showed that grassland agricultural model can completely replace the existing agricultural mode to meet the demand of future people food.(1)Using food equivalent unit and arable land equivalent unit evaluate the existing agriculture model in China, the amount of ALEU under current cropping patterns is2.55×108hm2. And under the grassland agricultural substitution patterns, the arable land equivalent units can be used to food production in China would reach2.8939×10hm2. It would be1.135times of the current agricultural system, showed it has a great potential for developing grassland agriculture.(2) There are differences potential of the rotation of crops and grass among all economic regions, the Southeast forest-shrub land region and Plateau and Huanghuaihai shrub land region had greater development potential, can newly increased arable land equivalent unit1581.550×104hm2and1362.852×104hm2, and Qinghai-Tibet alpine region is the least, only88.037×104hm2; Establishing5%of the available grassland as high-yielding pasture, the Northwest desert-shrub land region had the greatest exploitation potential among all regions, grass farmland equivalent unit was increased1.22times, Southwest karst shrub land region and Southeast forest-shrub land region had the least exploitation potential, grass farmland equivalent unit was only increased1.01times.(3) According to the grassland agriculture development model, we can newly increasing about75.196×106hm2of farmland equivalent unit, calculate by food output of standard farmland equivalent unit, the newly increased food can reach433.10×1010FEU. Expressed in FEU for different levels of per capita food demand, survival level for4500EFU, comfortable level for 5000EFU and rich level for5500EFU, by rich level of per capita demand5500FEU and then the newly increased ALEU can gain population supporting capacity of7.87hundred million people, about58.7%of the total population in2010. Population carrying capacity of the three levels are23.41,21.07and19.16hundred million people, would be1.69times as the current level.