Fitness Of The Mirid On Different Plants And The Establishment Of Occurrence Peak And Quantity Medium Range Forecast Model

In order to further illustrate the occurrence rules and characters of the mirid on different host plants and exploit the prediction model,the experiment of growth and development for nymph reared on the BT cotton(Zhongmian29,Lumianyan15),the non-BT cotton (Sumian9), and poi,celery,amaranth,soybean,sesame has been conducted in the laboratory. The protein content of the eight kinds of hosts plant above has been determined. The difference of the protein content among differ cotton varieties and differ organs (such as leaf, square and boll) has been also analyzed. Based on the history data of Jiangsu costal region, we initially established the mid-range prediction models of mired adult. The results were as following:The developmental duration and survival rate of the mirid nymph on eight kinds of different host plants was studied. There were a significantly difference in the nymph duration on eight kinds of hosts and also in each age of nymph. In eight kinds of host plants, the developmental duration of mirid nymph on poi was shortest(11.42d), and longest on soybean's(12.43d), respectively. The physiological time of two different mirids were definite in this paper. The physiological time and developmental duration of nymph on three kinds of cottons were located between these five kinds of host, and which was slightly longer on non-BT cotton than BT cotton, this result indicated that was no adverse effects on growth and development of mirid nymph on BT cotton, even more suitable than non-BT cotton. By comparing the growth and development between Lygus lucorum nymph and Adelphocoris suturalis nymph on different hosts, we discovered the survival rate of Lygus lucorum low age nymph was extremely high on Sumian9, and declined quickly in old age nymph, this survival curve isⅠ(A) which was Pearl and Deevey divided; but the survival rate on the BT cotton (Zhongmian29,Lumianyan15),sesame and poi was no various difference, the survival curve isⅡ(B); the survival rate of Lygus lucorum low age nymph was low, later its growth is relatively steady, and its survival curve isⅢ( C). But the survival curve of Adelphocoris suturalis on the Sumian9,Lumianyan15 and Zhongmian29 isⅠ; and areⅡ,Ⅲon poi,amaranth and soybean,celery, respectively.The protein content of square,flower,leaf on non-BT cotton (Sumian9) and the BT cotton( Zhongmian29,Lumianyan15) were determined, respectively. The protein content of leaf and square were higher than flower to the there cottons, the content in leaf,square,flower between Zhongmian29 and Sumian9 was similar, and obviously higher than Lumianyan15. The survival rate in Lygus lucorum nymph low age nymph of square,flower and leaf were 81.5%,77.8% and 88.9%, respectively, and in old age nymph were 74.1%,48.1% and 74.8%, respectively, but the survival rate in Adelphocoris suturalis nymph low age nymph of square,flower and leaf were 96.3%,81.5% and 88.9%, respectively, and in old age nymph were 63.0%,51.1% and 51.9%, respectively. From the data, the Lygus lucorum nymph preference to harm the cotton young leaf and square which protein content were higher; but tropism to nitrogen of Adelphocoris suturalis was not obvious, Lygus lucorum nymph compared to Adelphocoris suturalis nymph preference host plant which the protein content was higher.The sixteen years data form 1993～2008 of the each peak and population of two different mired,average temperature,rainfall,the amount of rainfall,the time of illumination form Dafeng's Plant Protection Unit were arranged and analyzed using Multifactorial stepwise regression method, then all the factors have been significance test using DPS software and screened the factors which was relativity remarkable , prediction model was exploited of using polynomial regression lastly. The prediction model of two mirids which the population and date of each generation were initially established, the average accuracy could achieve 85% through back-generation test and extension forecast.