ABS Dynamics Modeling And System Design Of The Occurrence And Development Of Economic Crisis Under The Effect Of Geographic Structure

From the Industrial Revolution in 18th century, manual labor had been replaced by Machine production gradually. As the economy was liberated from the constraint of labor power, it had been developed rapidly. But the growth of economy is not always steady in the process of development; it's in a cyclical change actually. There will always be an economic recession after a continued prosperity, making the economic development depress. Therefore, it has practical significance to have a study on the mechanism of occurrence and diffusion of economic crisis.In this paper, from the bottom-up methodology, we built an economic model based on ABS modeling theory which had three different types of enterprise agents, a government agent and a financial department agent based on spacial interaction model. And then we developed Multi-agent Economic Crisis Simulation System. By this system, we simulate the action of production, sale, consumption, borrowing and repayment in two-dimensional regular network to simulate the real world. In this paper, we discussed how different policies affect the development of economy by setting different scenes; and based on this we simulated the occurrence and outbreak of economic crisis and explored the strategies and methods to solve the crisis. This paper had five chapters.The first chapter is the part of introduce. At this chapter we enumerated the studies on economic crisis in the world, expounded the developments and applications of ABS modeling which was the core method of this paper, discussed the study result of economic and geographic modeling using bottom-up methodology. And at last, we presented our study contents and ideas.In the second chapter, we introduced our ABS model in detail, presenting a bottom-up built model system having multi-type agents, a complete flow of funds, and a production sales market which was perfect competition. The main actions designed in the model included the actions of production, sale, consumption, borrowing, repayment, decision, establishment and bankrupt by enterprise agents, the action of taxation, investment, consumption, decision by government agent, and the action of borrowing, repayment by financial department agent. The third chapter described the design ideas, system flow, and the progress of development of Multi-agent Economic Crisis Simulation System, expounding the system structure, interface design, database design, the operation progress of simulation, and result of operation.In the forth chapter we built scenes by setting different policy parameters, obtaining the conclusions by comparing the simulated results of scenes. The results show:(1) The economy will develop to a higher lever, having larger production scale and output, and lower unemployment rate if we decline personal consumption properly.(2) Taking tax reduction to resource-product industry will have more positive impact to the economy than taking the same measure to other industries.(3) Financial department and enterprise agents will be fully developed if we choose an appropriate loose financial policy.(4) The economy will be at a high-develop level in simulation; but this will bring high-level debts to enterprise agents, and will lead to a crisis.(5) A loose restriction of agents' establishment brings the economy a rapid growth; but this will also make both production & financial market unsteady, leading to a crisis too.(6) There will be portents in 4-5 periods before the occurrence of economic crisis, showing as a decline of economy in a small range. But a loose policy will conceal those portents in the statistics of the totle economy.(7) After the occurrence of crisis, a stringent response to the crisis will inhibit the growth of economy over the long term.(8) We can both recover the scope of the economy and restrain the excessive expansion of the industry by adopting a progressively stringent strategy after crisis.(9) Government should consider to abolish the financial department's debt to bring down the lending rate, expand investment demand and promote the recovery of economy.In the fifth chapter, we summarize the full paper and discuss the shortage of this paper and the focus of a further study.