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Method And Positive Research Of Project Risk Analysis

Posted on:2003-10-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360065955127Subject:Business Administration
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With the development of integration of world economy , enterprises are confronted with fiercer competition ,undefinite factors in the enterprise investment are increasing ,& implementation of investment project are facing more risks and causing heavy losses .Hence ,a comprehensive analysis of investment risks should be made for the investment items except the feasibility study. This paper ,from the enterprise point of view,analyses the identification on risks ,principles ,methods & technology on quantitative & appraisal .A positive research on Automatic Cash-binding Machine of Wuhan Banking Machinery Factory is made as well with these risk analysis methods & technology.The theoretical section of this paper gives an account of 3 phases of a risk analysis on a project ,namely risk identification ,risk estimation & risk evaluation . The ordinary methods of project risk identification are Specialist Investigation Method (They can divided into Individual Judgement Method ,Brainstorming Method ,Delphi Method) ,Fault Tree Analysis Method, Scenarios Analysis Method , Sieve-surveillance-diagnosis technology ,Risk Source Table , Risk Check Table ,etc.. The ordinary methods of project risk estimation and evaluation are Break-even Point analysis ,sensitive analysis , Risk Reward Method ,Risk Equivalent Method ,Decision Tree Method , Extrapolation Method , Analytic Method ,Monte Carlo Analogue Method ,etc..The positive research of this paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis of the project of Automatic Cash-binding Machine of Wuhan Banking Machinery Factory , puts forward an implementary scheme .Economic & organizational risk of every phase are identified with Risk Source Table & Risk Check Table .An analysis & estimation of the project are made with Risk Reward Method ,Decision Tree Method ,Analytic Method & Monte Carlo Analogue Method accordingly ,& the effect on project financial evaluation is analysed as well.This paper applies knowledge ,theory & method of multi-subject ,such as Engineering Economics , modern management science ,risk analysis ,links quantitalive analysis with qualitative analysis ,Analytic Method & Investigation Method with computer analogue technology ,analyses the whole process of risk analysis of investment project according to the specific project ..provides a reference for enterprises to make investment project risk analysis . It has more practicability & operationability for us .
Keywords/Search Tags:Positive
PDF Full Text Request
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