Study On Countermeasures Of Preventing Risk In Livestock Production Management In Hebei Province After Joining WTO

China entered WTO in November, 2001. The entry will provoke the overwhelming tide of world-wild economic globalization all over the country, and it will enhance the managerial risks to the animal husbandry of Hebei province as well. As known to all, animal husbandry exerts enormous influences on the steady growth of farmers' income, on the improvements of people's living standards and the social stability. But our knowledge about the risks in animal husbandry are still very poor; experiences in risk management are quite insufficient. So, systematical analyses on the managerial risks in animal husbandry of Hebei, finding out the inherent regularities and proposing some effective measures to tackle these risks is a important subject at present.Here are the main risks endangering animal husbandry in Hebei: natural risks, market risks, technological risks, credit risks and political risks. In the main meteorological calamities, losses due to floods are the largest, and then followed by the losses that hailstorms and droughts caused. After the analyses on the fluctuations of Market Price Indices of Hebei from 1990 to 2001, the paper concludes that market risks in animal husbandry are greater than that in the food industry, and far greater than that in the industry of consumer goods.Firstly, the paper introduces and measures the main risks confronting animal husbandry in Hebei, and probes the methods to predict the probabilities of main risks in animal husbandry. Furthermore, it proposes some countermeasures to prevent the risks. The paper adopts flow charts, combined with the spot investigation methods, to discern the risks; besides, gray-related-analytic methods are used as well to analyze the influences that natural calamities exert to animal husbandry. Meanwhile, using the tools based on probability theories and mathematical statistics, the papermeasures the market risks lying in the animal husbandry of Hebei, so as to determine the probability density function of the losses from market risks of domestic animal products in this province.Moreover, this paper has also done some researches on risk-defensive measures and the modern risk managerial approaches for animal husbandry. Basically, the risk-defensive measure refers to the policy-perfecting and institution-formulating; while the modern risk managerial approach mainly means the animal husbandry insurance. Through economics analyses, the paper concludes that the introduction of animal husbandry insurance will channel interests from farmers to domestic animal products consumers, thus making governments and consumers the biggest winners. Therefore, the paper argues that governments should subsidize the enterprises running animal husbandry insurance and fanners who have bought animal husbandry insurance, and the funds that husbandry product consumers feed back to the fanners should be included in the subsides.