| Since middle period of the 1990s, food supply of our country has transformed from long-term shortage to supply and demand balanced and the harvest year that have enough and to spare. The restrained factor of agricultural development has changed from restraint of resource to double restraint of resource and demand. After joining WTO, agriculture faces double challenge of turn of the domestic market and international market competition, urgently requires strategic adjustment of the agricultural structure to accelerate western agricultural development and sustained development.Combining the reality of South Xinjiang, this paper objectively analyzes and evaluates the natural resources and society economic resources, it researches and analyzes the agricultural development and its possibility realized. This paper put forwards sustained development countermeasures in South Xinjiang. It offers the theoretical foundation to agricultural resources development in Xinjiang and western regions, for policymaker' and administrative staff's reference. Its main conclusions as follows:1. South Xinjiang is a relatively independent natural-economic unit of Xinjiang. It has abundant resources of light, heat and the water-land resources filing together preferably. It is abundant in petroleum, mineral and gas resources. It is the main productive area of cotton in our country, it is abundant in all kinds of local products. The development potentialities are very great. But because of the limitations of various kinds of conditions, its development of natural resources and talent resources has been slow for many years. The area is still in the self-sufficient economic state; Being drought and little rain, vegetation are sparse, the ecological System is very weak, desertification is serious year by year, economic structure is unreasonable, the industrial foundation is weak, the traffic conditions are bad, the regional market is sealed, the development degree is low. All factors decide that agricultural development of South Xinjiang is arduous and persist development.2. According to ecosystem transform laws of energy and substance circulation in space and time, the principle of water and soil fertility limit function, adopting the cropgrowth dynamic model , this paper evaluates proactive potentialities of cereal crops and main industrial crops cotton in the area. Productive potentialities of light and temperature in South Xinjiang is very great, development degree of cereal crops in reality is 30.58% on average, its development potentialities to be exploited is 12775.22 kg/ hm2, development degree of the cotton in reality is 26.92%, its development potentialities to be exploited is 3786.14 kg/ hm2. The irrigation development potentialities of cereal crops is 3680.7 kg/hm2, the irrigation development potentialities of the cotton is 1036.24 kg/hm2, cereal crops and the cotton of development degree is 80% of development degree of light and temperature productive potentialities, soil development potentialities of cereal crops is 10294.75 kg/hm2, soil development potentialities of the cotton is 2916.82 kg/hm2, cereal crops and the cotton of development degree is 44.06% of development degree of the light and temperature potentialities. Under the natural conditions in South Xinjiang, water is the main limited factor of controlling the agricultural productive potentialities. Under the irrigation conditions at present, the main limited factor of productivity is soil quality.3. Adopting the Miami model, the paper evaluates the productive potentialities of natural pasture and evaluates the capacity of natural pasture, manual meadow, crops straw and agricultural byproducts. The number of the livestock capacity in total is 47.887 million sheep unit, its development degree of grass capacity is 37.87%. Except for the natural pasture in Palestine District, others overload seriously. Crop straw resources is abundant in South Xinjiang, it has very much great potentialities to be exploited. Developing stockbreeding in South Xinjiang wi...
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