| With population expanding, resources shortness, environmental deterioration and food deficiency, more and more eyes were fixed on land production potentiality and land carrying capacity. The agriculture and pasturage zone of Northern Shaanxi is an important area in China for its geography and environment, its food can not carry the population. Study on land production potentiality and land carry capacity has strategic significance for the zone. Based on field review and data collection, we study the land production potentiality and land carrying capacity in the zone. The main conclusions are as follows.1 The research estimates the cropland production potentiality by step correct method. It is surveyed that in this region the light production potentiality is 22290 kg/hm2, the thermal production potentiality is 14536 kg/hm2, the climate production potentiality is 5510 kg/hm2 and the soil production potentiality is 1774 kg/hm2, water and soil are limiting factors. The order of the climate production potentiality is: Fugu>Jiaxian>Jingbian>Yuyang>Shenmu> Hengshan>Dingbian, and the order soil production potentiality is: Dingbian>Shenmu>Fugu >Hengshan>Yuyang>Jiaxian>Jingbian. At the same time, this paper describes the guiding suggestions to improve the cropland production potentiality.2 The research calculates the grassland production potentiality as well as the cropland, which is according to the fact of the zone where agriculture and herd are both important. The paper calculates the crude grassland production potentiality by Miami Model, it is 7027 kg/hm2,the order of 7 counties is: Fugu>Shenmu>Jiaxian>Yuyang>Hengshan> Jingbian>Dingbian but the edible grass is 2164 kg/hm2, which is only 30.8% of production potentiality in 1996. There has great potential to exploit.3 The land actual production is 707.51 kg/hm2, which is just 39.88% of the soil production potentiality, 12.84% of the climate production potentiality, not enough 5% of the thermal production potentiality. Grain per capita in hand is just 285 kg/hm2 every year, it is lower than the lowest consumption standard of China and has a greater gap with the consumption standard in the world. The grassland actual production is low too. It can carry2130. thousand sheep but there are 2547 thousand sheep in 1996, the overloading rate is 19.59%..4 The paper estimates the land production potentiality dynamically and statically to make the result having more forecasting signification. In the DPS (data processing system), with non-linear regression analysis, we forecast the cropland will decline to 795.9 thousand hm2 in 2005, 767.9 thousand hm2 in 2015 and 725.7 thousand hm2 in 2030. With the gray relational grade method, the research calculates the production potentiality at different year and cost, we concludes 884 kg/hm2, 1110 kg/hm2 and 1269 kg/hm2 in 2005, 2015 and 2030. We forecasts the livestock carrying capacity is 2551 thousand sheep in 2005, 3126 thousand sheep in 2015 and 3845 thousand sheep in 2030. We draw the concluding that the livestock carrying capacity will increase 19.78%, 46.77% and 80.52% in 2005, 2015 and 2030.5 Energy statistical method is used to research land carrying capacity, which is according to the trend, convenient for comparing during different zone and substitute for different kinds of food. The land limited carrying capacity is 12148 thousand persons in the agriculture and pasturage zone of Northern Shaanxi, and the corrected land most carrying capacity is 9140 thousand persons, and the ideal carrying capacity is 6212 thousand persons. In possible cost, overloading is in all the counties.6 The research analyses the status and trend of human-land relationship in the zone. Countermeasures to control the relationship conclude: family planning to control population; consolidating education for population diathesis; intensifying realize to generalize science and technology; adding agriculture cost; more vegetation to control desertification.
|
PDF Full Text Request