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A Research And Application Of Decision Support System On Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Of Chinese Economy

Posted on:2005-02-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:B WuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2156360122493858Subject:Cartography and Geographic Information System
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The issue of regional sustainable development is an important research field in Geography, and taking use of computer technology to study geographic issues is the trend of the development of Geography. Since 1990s, the trend has formed internationally a key subject-GeoComputation, and developing computable models and applications, as well various technological theories about computer application in Geography, such as GIS, RS. Therefore, GeoComputation is considered as the core of Geographic Information Science. In this study, we selected a applied study of Mathematical Economics: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis, and develop The Decision Support System on Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Economy. The purpose of this system is to help the national policy makers model economy policies and establish economy policies.In this paper, firstly we processed demand analysis, one of the most important work of developing system, on the basis of software engineering theories. In this study, we amended the GIS demand analysis of Wang et al (1993), and proposed that the demand foundation of DSS on Geographic issues is system object but not geographic principle. On the basis of this pattern, we thought regional characteristic should be emphasized. Moreover, we should consider the model characteristic besides data structure. All in all, model characteristic is the most important in the demand analysis. Because the national policy makers are our main user group, we analyzed their demands.The CGE model we developed is the core of the system. The study is conducted within the framework of a 17-sector, single-country, static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China. In contrast to existing studies on China's economy, which typically assume noncompetitive markets, this study takes into account the complete formation of the market system. It also uses more recent data than existing analyses. In particular, the benchmark year is 1997, and the actual schedule of China's trade barrier reductions is used. Thus this study tries to obtain a more realistic picture of the influences on the Chinese economy in 1997. The CGE model constructed in the study is estimated using calibration procedure couple with economic estimation for key parameters. In addition, we must make some assumption, in particular the assumption that production technologies, consumer preferences and ownership of capital would remain unchanged in the short term. As for as the algorithm of solving the model, we select the Johansen-Euler method according the stability of algorithm. In a word, the design of solving algorithm should besatisfy the object of system.With regard to system design, we pursue a friendly user interface, confidence. In terms of the choice of developing mode, we adopted the mature visual program language VB and ADO technique. At last, we use Gauss-Jordan method to solve the linear equations due to system stability and reliability.During our research and development of prototype system, we produced some ideas as follow:(1)The reliability of software is the most important thing when choosing software to develop DSS in Geographic Information Science, and new software is not necessary because its reliability hasn't been tested fully. Additionally, we also recommend Access as database software support GeoComputation environment due to its reliability and ability of migrating to bigger database, such as oracle, sql;(2)We should pay attention to recognize the task characters and classify these characters according to object-oriented technology when analyzing function demand. Our research shows that it's feasible for developers to classify model characters to design system when they want to establish general equilibrium analysis;(3)We set up CGE model system to analyze Chinese economic issues.At the last section of this paper, we applied our system to get conclusions as the follow:(4)The Chinese policy of trade liberation, including tariff reduction of 1997, APEC trade liberation and China's accession to the W...
Keywords/Search Tags:GeoComputation, GISci, DSS, CGE model
PDF Full Text Request
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