The Research On Developing Strategic Of Zhangjiagang Port

With the development of our country's economy and further reform and opening, especially the coming of china's entry to WTO, the port, as an open system much closing the external environment, faces more intense competition in the market. Zhangjiagang port is one of the most important port at the entrance of the gold waterway, Yangzi river, to the sea. It also locates in Changjiang delta which has flourishing economy and solid industry base. Zhangjiagang is the important import & export port of this area. So the problem of how to adapt Zhangjiagang port to thedevelopment of theexternal environment and how to sever region economy better is worth studying. This paper first analyzes the basic situation of Zhangjiagang port, and make a combination forecast of the port' s cargo handling capacity. Then it gives the medium-long term development plan of Zhangjiagang port.The research work of this article is made up of theory and application, it includes three partsrthe first, it takes SWOT analytical technology to analyse Zhangjiagang port' s developing strategic enviorment . The second, it according to the statistical figures about the cargo transport in recent years, it analyzes cargo transport structure and the changing law and the internal reason of cargo transport. At the same time it analyzes and calculates the change of the arriving ships' structure for a systematic and full understand of the transport demands. The third, it make a scientific forecast of the port' s future cargo capacity making use of the grey forecast system, which provides scientific basis for medium-long term development plan of the port's cargo handling capacity. It also makes some analysis and research for medium-long term development future of Zhangjiagang port in use of physical unit analising technique, looks for the scaltered no-order and no-system reason of medium-long term development. On the basis of summarizing theirexperience, the article adopts physical unit model to make a comprehensivejudgement. It has distinctive opinion of value in accord with scientific principles for medium-long term development of Zhangjiagang port.The article concentrates on the forecast of Zhenjiang Port' s development in the future. After advancing general method and technology of forecast, it takes environment element identified technology and analytical technology of SWOT state to analyse Zhenjiang Port' s developing strategic environment, is based on the port's production characteristic, it puts grey forecast theory into the port' s future cargo handling capacity, On the basis of summarizing their experience, the article takes three-time exponential smothing and combination technology. With distinctive opinion of value of coefficient a , it makes use of the computers' programming operation to make the value of a more accurate, and checks the forecast result. Grey forecast theory is more scientific, reasonable and practical in using of historical counting material compare with traditional forecast theory. It avoids man-made influence in practicalworks.The research of this paper will be the reference for the port development of Zhangjiagang port and has the practical meaning in the field.