Research On The Regulation And Operation Forecast Of Securities Institution

The Chinese securities market has experienced a great development over the last decade, and it is playing a more and more significant role in China's economy. Since Chinese securities institutions are one of the most important parts of the capital market, their sustaining development and standard operations are crucial to guarantee the stability and healthy development of the capital market.The Chinese securities market has run a course of development since 2001. During this course, it became more marketable, more legal and more international. Meanwhile, it also met an unprecedented cold current. The scandals such as Yinguangxia and Zhongkechuang that were the representative of breaking the law and regulations made the investors lose confidence. The securities institutions gradually suffered from losses owing to the decline of the securities market. The plan of attacking the problems, which was of long standing by means of allowing the state-owned shares to be listed on the securities market, was originally put into practice. Because the price-making mechanism of the state-owned shares was not perfect enough, the practice was temporarily held up. And the securities institutions are facing grim challenges after the entry of WTO. In the Chinese market environment that is characterized by burgeoning and shunting features, it is very urgent to find out the conditions that can not only monitor securities institutions efficiently, but also help to improve their performance persistently.First a few related theories in economics and management science, together with the historical data and some other factors affecting the capital markets, are used to analyze the necessity for monitoring securities institutions. Then we discuss the supervision from the perspective of the social cost. Research shows that good supervision should be specific, time-dependent, and forecasting. Finally we point out that prediction from the financial statement report and the relevant variables are very helpful to better supervision. At the same time, the operation situation of securities institutions in Chongqing is particularly studied by the theory of gray forecast. By the prediction result and the analysis of the securities institutions' activity, we give some conductive suggestions on the rational choice of strategies for the securities institutions and the government, some of which can be generalized to the entire China's capital market.The statistics of CNKI shows that, up to now, no work has related regulation to forecast in the domestic literature. Therefore, our work provides a useful tool to further study in this area.