Fuzzy Dominant Path Method (F-DPM) For Activity Networks With Ill-know Durations

First an overview of some approaches to activity networks with ill-know durations is proposed. They all base on probability theory. However, the activity durations and their distributions are subjectively determined, so the premise of probability distributions of activity times is not always applicable.Therefore, we replace probabilistic considerations in the project network analysis by possibilitic ones, to reduce the difficulty arising from the inexact and insufficient information of activity times. So we use triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) to simulate the activity times and the fuzzy Delphi method to estimate the TFNs of each activity. Base on these time estimates, we then propose a new fuzzy project-network analysis method -Fuzzy Dominant Path Method (F-DPM) for calculating the fuzzy project completion time, the possibility of meeting certain project completion times, the degree of criticality for each path and other important parameters.Finally, the solution procedure will be described in detail conjunction with an example to illustrate the analysis, algorithm and computation of the proposed method.