Another Trade Effect Analyzing: After WTO' S Entrance, The Change And Tendency Of The Pattern Of Trade In China's Main Region

A country' s opening-up simultaneously includes two aspects. One is inter-regional opening up, the other is international opening up. The strategy of opening-up in our country has always been dominated by the central government. Meanwhile, it is obviously somewhat partial, that is, it emphasizes international opening up more than the inter-regional one, emphasizes international trade more than inter-regional trade. Such partial opening up strategy and policy induced the rapid development of international trade and foreign capital absorbing. At the same time, it results in the low level development of regional opening up and inter-regional specialization, therefore the inter-regional trade has always been restrained. Comparing to the big industrialized countries, it is abnormal that the highly international opening up and international trade coexists with blockaded relations of regions and restrained inter-regional trade. It must decelerate the development of the economies. However, with China' s WTO entrance, it will arouse a hot tide of inter-regional opening up among the regions in our country. This paper attempts to discuss the inevitability and path of the inter-regional opening up, therefore the change and tendency of the trade model among the main regions , where the trade model particularly refers to the relation between the inter-regional trade and international trade, using the newer theories namely New Economic Geography, New Institutional Economics and the Integration Trade Theory. The structure goes below. The first section is the foreword. The second discusses the inevitability and path of the inter-regional opening up. The third discusses how the WTO' s entrance and inter-regional opening up affect the distribution of the industries in our country. It implies that industries will cluster together some kind, and the phenomenon of similarity of industries among the regions will be reduced. So the inter-regional trade will expand. Thefourth empirically examines the current advantages of the regions, then, according to the results of the former section, we discuss the structure of the industries of regions, and then the change and tendency of the pattern of trade.The results are below. First, after WTO' s entrance, the international trade will expand. Second, with WTO' s entrance , the inter-regional opening-up will start up. During this course, the trade obstacle will be cut down, then the industries cluster together according to the advantages among the different regions, and the phenomenon of similarity of industries among the regions will be reduced. That is, the inter-regional specification gets more reasonable, the inter-regional trade therefore expands. Third, the inter-regional opening-up will not go in step among the whole country, but start with regional integration. So, while the inter-regional trade (for example, the trades among the Three Belts) expands, the trade expansion among some parts (that is, the regions actualizing regional integration or agglomeration) will be the main form.