An Empirical Analysis Of Hunan Economic Growth And The Environmental Evolvement

The research of environmental evolvement that nowadays only includes developing route and stages for environmental development should still includes the study of fluctuation (there are little researches being concerned about the fluctuation). EKC is a hot point of present academic research, whose core is that there exist stages in the development of environment. But today's researches of environmental Kuznets show that the key problem seems to have been neglected. One can see these phenomenons in plenty of researches investigating EKC. This paper taking Hunan as a sample, utilizing advanced mathematical tool and theoretical analysis method, study its economic growth and environmental quality variation. The path of environmental development, the stages as well as the swings of environmental changes are well thought about in our study. The following are the important conclusions we get:First one, due to the difference of conditions of different region and different time, environmental Kuznets curve, though, reveals the existence of the stages of environmental development, the developing roads, to some extent, should be special. We find out that the environmental developing road of Hunan Province looks like a U instead of a inversed U curve. And the process it passed and will pass are more complex than the normal EKC.The second one is the environmental stages divided with the present method are too abstract, which can only distinguish whether the environmental quality is worsen or improved. This paper specifically discussing environmental quality stages, adopting the method of distributing developing stages, putting forward new partition standard, divide 3 big stages and 7 small stages of the environmental development.The third, by studying the fluctuation of environmental quality development, the existence of fluctuation is well proved, and there is also a correlation between economic fluctuation and the fluctuation of environmental quality.The last but not least, Hunan may be faced with serious environmental problem, which are following: ?According to the tendency of the development of Hunan environmental quality, Hunan will enter the transition period between the U condition and the inversed U process, in which environmental degradation will be serious ; (2) Hunan environmental quality total fluctuation shows to enlarge; (3) we discover that as for environmental cycle, we can not foresee a optimistic future. In the end of 20th7century, Hunan puts forward industrialization driving urbanism strategy, if the environmental problems are not cared about in industrialization and urbanism process, the future of Hunan development should be worried.