Study On The Vegetable Production, Consumption And Trade In China

The vegetable is one of the most important foods in people's daily life. It is important to improve the people's lives, settle the rural laborers, increase peasant's income level, and increase the foreign currency. Today, after China entering WTO, planting vegetable becomes an important industry in national economy with the improving of market economic system and the living standards of the people. In an era of global competition, keeping the equilibrium of vegetable supply and demand is benefit to improve the international competitiveness of the Chinese vegetable industry. On the base of econometric analysis in vegetable industry, the thesis carries on perspective prediction and assessment to the supply and demand of vegetable in the future, finds out the problems of the equilibrium of Chinese vegetables supply and demand, and puts forward the pointed , effective policy recommendations. For guiding Chinese vegetable industry development, filling in the deficiency in this field in our country, all of those undoubtedly have important theoretical meaning and realistic meaning.The thesis uses a large number of front knowledge in modern mathematics field, such as the Primary Composition Analysis in Multi-Variate Statistical Analysis, Classic Correlation Analysis, Regression Analysis, Grey System theory and Markov chain etc., also applies some modern statistical tools, for example, SPSS, SAS, Mathematic, originally structures the mathematics models of vegetable output , consumption , net export with the combination of macroscopic and microcosmic analysis, the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the combination of horizontal and vertical comparison, predicts the data(from 2003 to 2015) of Chinese vegetable output, consumption, net export, and analyzes these policy meaning from the data.This text is divided into five chapters. Chapter one, the part of the preface, expounds the purpose and meaning of this thesis, analyzes both domestic and abroad vegetable research trends, especially that of our country, expounds the basic train of thought, research approach, the structure of thesis, the main innovation of the thesis and the question needed further studying. In terms of production hi chapter two, Chinese vegetable produce change and characteristic are analyzed; several factors which influence output of vegetable are analyzed by combining the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis; prediction model of the output of vegetable is structured; a objective total amount of prediction of vegetable output is found out by comparing with the other methods such as Grey Systematic theory and One Linear Regression In chapter three, theABSTRACTthesis summarizes Chinese current situation and characteristics of consumption, analyzes several factors which influence vegetable consumption, structures Primary Composition Regression predicting model of vegetable consumption per capita in urban and rural areas by putting main factors and volume of consumption together, makes prediction of that by using Markov chain theory and Index Regression model at the same time, finds out a suitable predicting amount of consumption by comparing three kinds of prediction results, and calculate total amount of Chinese vegetable consumption for 2003-2015 years according to the prediction of rural and urban population in the following 13 years. Chapter four mainly concerns about export trade of vegetable. At first, it analyzes the current situation of Chinese vegetable export trade, explains Chinese total amount, structure, geography that vegetable export flow into and province contribution. Secondly, it extends to the export advantages, potentiality and restricted factors of Chinese vegetable industry. Finally, it utilizes the Grey Systematic theory to structure the predicting models of Chinese vegetable net export, and predicts the export volume of vegetable of some time of future (2003-2015). Chapter five, as a chapter of summing-up, makes a comprehensive conclusion according to chapter two, three, and four. Firstly,...