The Investment Decision Behavior Analysis Of The Project Under The Uncertain Factors

The decision of project investment is analyzed, it is not the investment institution of 1he project, especially Ihe daily financial activity most frequent part of investment institution of medium and small project, perhaps it is rare in one fiscal year to run into one twice. However it is fternost important part in die daily financial activity of investment institution of project Because 1he amount of money of project investment is large, time is long that influence, have a big risk, once it is difficult to change or remedy to make the investment But under maiket economy terms, a laige number of exist random variable and uncertain variable at random non-, and the economic variable will change according to the market situation at any time, market economy will make the uncertainty of the economic variable more obvious, this has determined traditional economic system already unsuitable to be realistic to a great extent of investment decision method. In order to meet the request set up of the socialist market economy system, hold the pulse of turn of the market, improve economic operational efficiency, realize micro economy subject seek profit maximize or purpose that utility maximizes, must fully consider the influence and consequence of the uncertain factor in nnplementing economy to make policy in decision subject, this fully indicates, not merely there is a great realistic meaning in the study on uncertain decision, and stiU have deep theory value. This text has carried on the survey and summarized to the investment decision method of the project at first, have pointed out traditional investment decision method and limitation and deficiency of the material object option decision method, development newly of modern investment decision theory and method on this basis, have explained systematically. Secondly, have analyzed and described project investment and theory characteristic of the definition, division at stage, influence factor, playing chess of decision. At the same time, influence the main irreversibility including cost of factor of the investment decision of the project, uncertainty faced of the project and competitiveness caused because of sharing among the competitors of option, project investors reduced the probability failing in order to receive optimum decision, should influence three kinds of factors of decision to bring into the same decision frame and come down and analyze and appraise. Because irreversibility of most investment decision and economic environment take place constantly uncertainty when making decision the, can well deal with the uncertainty and irreversibility in option method of material object, play chess theory can deal withcompetitive reaction problem of investor well at the same time, therefore the project investment decision in the realistic economic life has options to play chess characteristics. So direct against the characteristic of the realistic economic life, can use stochastic process, dynamic planning mathematics and physics tool and investment decision theory and play chess theory and method go on the capital budget of project investment. Have reviewed and appraised in part also the appraisal on project investment and decision traditional method, have pointed out its limitation.