The Research Of Electricity Price Analysis And Forecasting In Electricity Market

The marketization of power industry is a development trend of the current power industry in the world and a focus of the international electric scientific research and project practice. Electricity price is not only a signal of the electric market supply-demand relationship, but also an economic lever of controlling electric marketing, therefore, the theory of electricity price is a key subject for the current electric market research. Theoretical research of electricity price system and the trade mechanism of the electric market are unripe nowadays for the power industry market of our country started relatively late, and deeper research seems particularly essential. Cost analysis is the foundation of the theory of electricity price,the thesis first research on the components of electricity price, then analyses several factors influencing the fluctuation of electricity price and a few methods to ascertain electricity price. Aim at the weak link in the theoretical research of electricity price of electricity market -- transmission service and ancillary service, the thesis further investigates the measurement and pricing problem for the transmission service and ancillary service. Various kinds of pricing mode and method of transmission service are discussed, and accounts settlement models and market clearing models for AGC and spinning reserve market in ancillary service are proposed. The market clearing model is illuminated by Dynamic Programming Method and an instance for units participated in AGC market is given to verify the practicability and validity of the model. In the end, the purpose for electricity price forecasting is discussed in the thesis, and the main influencing factors on SMP are analysed. ANN forecast model and a regression forecast model and fuzzy theory are respectively described in the application of short-term electricity price forecasting and long-term electricity price forecasting. How to apply FNN method and fuzzy regression method into the electricity price forecasting is conceived.