The Controversy Of Monetary Policy Operational Guidelines And Enlightenment To Our Country

The rules versus discretion debate about monetary policy operational guidelines lasted more than 150 years. It is the argument focus of economics schools. A lot of valuable accomplishments have been produced concerning the public credence of rules and the flexibility of discretion. In our country, with gradual perfection of socialist market -oriented economy mechanism, the space of means adjusting and controlling macro-economy mainly with monetary policy will increasingly spacious. Therefore, it is important that improving monetary policy operational guidelines and enhancing operational accomplishment. In order to make a detail explanation for this problem, first, make a thorough introduction and analysis about the dispute of "rules and discretion" in west-economics circle; second, give a comment and analysis about Keynes "discretion pattern" and monetarism "rules pattern"; final, study the problem by newest game theory analysis from the complete information and incomplete information. Incorporate the dynamic inconsistency, reputation model into consideration scope.On the foundation of theoretical analysis, make a empirical research about operational accomplishment of monetary policy. At the same time, through theoretical models, pointed out the limitation of merely "rules pattern" and "discretion pattern" in our country's monetary policy. Put forward a lot of measures to improve the accomplishments of monetary policy such as enhancing the transparency of monetary policy, raising the independence of central bank, selecting suitable operational target of monetary policy. Currency authorities should consider consistency and credence of monetary policy based on the long-run interest, guide public anticipation reasonably, realize long-run optimum equilibrium, offer good environment for the steady development of national economy.