Thought On Precautionary Savings Behavior Of Chinese Urban Residents During Transitional Period

A newly developed western savings theory — Precautionary Savings Theory, which mainly dwells on residents' savings behavior under uncertain conditions, is a great expansion of the traditional savings theory. The domestic scholars, while making use of the precautionary savings theory of the west to analyze the Chinese residents' savings behavior, having mostly neglected the reality that China are going through "Transitional Period", therefore it is impossible to explain perfectly the Chinese residents' savings behavior. In view of this, based on the frame of the precautionary savings theory of the west, in order to analyze the phenomena of high savings in our country, the author rethinks the precautionary savings theory newly during the transitional period, combining the characteristics of the institution changes. Firstly, this text mainly carries on the brief summary of traditional savings theory and precautionary savings theory; Then the author qualitatively analyzes the behavior of our urban residents during the transitional period. Proceeding with the characteristics of the institution changes, the author explains the difficulties and deficiency on savings behavior variation of our urban residents when directly applies the western savings theory to our country in this chapter. At the same time, the author expands the precautionary savings theory and applies it to the explanation of our residents' savings behavior mainly evolving from the resident's future expenditure uncertainty angle; And then this text inspects the behavior of precautionary saving of our urban residents during the transitional period empirically, through utilizing the revised Dynan Model, picking up the urban residents' consumption, income, price data between 1991 and 2003 of China, the author proves the expenditure uncertainty reason of the precautionary savings theory during the transitional period. Finally, On the basis of the above the qualitative and quantitative analysis, it puts forward suggestions in order to stimulate consumption through reducing residents' precautionary savings together with total savings.