Correction And Analysis Of Chinese Deposit Regression Models

Since 1978, with the rapid development of the national economy, there's a strong growing tendency of Chinese deposit saving, which brings both positive and negative effects on Chinese economy. Therefore, the government has issued a series of positive financial and monetary policies to stimulate the need of consumption, investment and the reposition of redundant personnel save. However, there's still a steady increase in deposit saving. Thus, the deposit saving models are established to analyze the factors influencing deposit saving, which results in great disparity.This paper puts forward some different opinions based on previous research achievements by first analyzing the influencing factors on deposit saving and exploring the possible defects of the present saving models. And it establishes a deposit saving model for urban and suburban dwellers by econometrical methods. Considering the apparent differences between the cities and countries, it establishes models from aspects of city dwellers and peasants respectively. By the analyzes of the above three regressive results, the following result can be proved: the main changes in Chinese residents' deposit saving are the common results of deposable income of residents, interest rates, inflation rates as well as precautionary motive. The income has the biggest effect on deposit saving not by relative elasticity, but by its huge growth; The effect of interest rate is neither unapparent nor weak, but the most flexible one, because its varying space is limited. Inflation rate has little influence on the growth of deposit saving and have negative correlation before the reform in some important policies concerning medical treatment, education, housing and employment. Their relations are negative which turns into a positive one. This relation mainly manifested in the city dwellers; The precautionary motive for money is manifested in both urban and rural citizens especially in urban residents after the reform At last, it puts forward some suggestions on making future deposit saving policies in China based on the conclusions made in this paper.