The Empirical Research On The Relationship Of Foreign Trade Structure And Industrial Structure

This dissertation studies the relationship of the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure; the key research is put on the channel through which foreign trade structure affects industrial structure and the conducting mechanism between the industrial structural change and the change in foreign trade structure. This paper begins with the theory of the international trade ranging from the traditional comparative advantage theory to the strategic trade policy, and summarizes the theory and the law about the industry evolution and the strategies that facilitate the industry development, and analyses the function mechanism between the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure, which also builds up a theoretical analysis frame of the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure. Then, this paper analyses the present situation and summarizes the character and tendency of the change in industrial structure and structure of foreign trade in our country, makes a comparsion with some other countries. Whereafter this paper expands the endogenous economic growth model to including the export and the import departments, and makes an empirical study on the channel through which foreign trade structure affects industrial structure during 1980 to 2002,by the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) which is specialized in the panel data. The empirical results discover that: from the point view of the comparative factor productivity, only in third industry, the export departments, both primary and manufactural, promote its increase through enhancing its factor productivity in non-export sector; in the spillover effect aspect, export in the primary industry, and import in the second and the third industries promote these industries' increase by active spillover effect to non-import sector; and comparatively the factor productivity, both in export and import, of manufacture is higher than that of primary, the structural effect is noticeable. At last, based on the analysis above, we study further the dynamic relationship of the change in foreign trade structure and the industrial structural change from the long-term and short-term aspects utilizing the co-integration and the error correction model. The results demonstrate that there exists a smooth conducting mechanism between the three variances, as there are bidirectional shortrun Granger causality between each and another. Concerning the longrun relationship, the change in import structure has been positive drive to the exporting structural change and industrial structural change, and the Industrial structural change acts as a reverse driverole to the change in export structure.