Analysis On Affecting Factors Of Agriculture-Stock Raising Development In Northern Interlacing Agro-pastoral Region

The paper analyses the affecting factors of agriculture-stock raising development in northern China interlacing agro-pastoral region and takes Neiman Banner as the example. The main character is to use interpretive structure modeling (ISM) method to analysis the structure of agriculture-stock raising system in interlacing agro-pastoral region, then to build relative mathematic model. The paper attains a set of relative complete database by many ways to overcome the difficulty of data. Dividing traditional labor income into labor capital and natural capital (land potential productivity into economic system) is the key point of the paper, which reflects the impact of desertification on economics by natural capital changing. The effect of economic impact on land in desertification is modeled by using utility rate of land potential productivity. Agriculture-stock raising production model is composed of capital, effective labor and land productivity, and the elastic coefficients descend in turn. It means that capital gives the biggest share to development, and effective labor and land productivity give less. To the production function, the flow capital is more effective than constant capital. With time going, the importance of capital goes down and other two factors begin more important. And effective labor is changing a lot to reflect the needs for knowledge in modern agriculture. Neiman is still in the period of increasing return to scale, while the increasing return becomes less. The utility rate of land potential productivity varies between 0-0.4. The rate before 1980 is low and less fluctuated, which means that the agriculture-stock raising productivity is low and less need to land productivity at that period. The rate after 1980 is high and much more fluctuated. At this period, the percents of capital endowment go down and land productivity is more important. The flow capital and agriculture-stock raising production in interlacing agro-pastoral region exist a negative feedback. Also economic system and natural system exist a negative feedback. The negative relationship from variation of land productivity to variation of production is more prominent than reversing, which means natural system has a stronger buffer. Under the natural condition, sand movement can not be hold in the studied area. The development of agriculture-stock raising should depend largely on the increase of capital and effective labor, not on land productivity. And land use should avoid decreasing the vegetations.