An Analysis And Forecasting Of Land Demand And Land-Population Sustainability

Land demand forecasting is an important part of land planning with its major goal as to study future trend of land utilization, and to estimate various types of land demands and change in land utilization structure. Another fundamentally important part of land planning is land-population sustainability forecasting that studies the delicate relationship between population, land and agricultural production and tries to work towards a balanced solution.In order to improve forecasting precision and to realize scientific, structured and holistic land demand forecasting model systems, and on basis of the characteristics of land utilization systems, this thesis utilizes theories and methods such as land planning, land economics, system engineering, forecasting and decision making techniques, computer technologies and several land demand forecasting models to establish the new Modified Equal Dimensional GM(1,1) Model (MEDGM) and Segmented Combinational Forecasting Model System (SCFMS). The paper is accompanied with a self-developed software called LandSmart that is for facilitating calculating land demand and land-population sustainability. Under the guideline of qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis is carried out, and the SCFMS model is used for forecasting land demand and land-population sustainability. The paper also analyses the equilibrious relationship between the amount of land demand and the amount of different categories of land, and establishes that there will be surplus of land-population sustainability in the next 15 years. Results are obtained for the land demand and land-population sustainability of Wuming County. At last, suggestions are provided for some possible solutions for the current problems with regard to the land utilization.This work provides a good foundation for the modernization of land resources management and offers important methodology and technical support for land planning at county level. Meanwhile, it will have positive contribution to the development of the land planning science.